000 AXNT20 KNHC 262354 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE ERN ATLC EXTENDING FROM 17N28W TO 8N31W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. THE WAVE CONTINUES TO LIE JUST W OF A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SEEN IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS MAINLY W OF THE AXIS FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 32W-40W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES EXTENDING FROM 19N55W TO 12N59W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE OF WHICH THE SRN EXTENT IS ALREADY OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS MAINLY W OF THE AXIS FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 61W-70W...AND FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 56W-60W. STRONG ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE SE CARIBBEAN AND THE LESSER ANTILLES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE WWD INTO THE BASIN. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS DOWN THE WRN SIDE OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 22N89W TO 15N93W MOVING WNW NEAR 10 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE THAT COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN AND THE SRN GULF. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE ENTIRE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND GUATEMALA. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS ACROSS SRN MEXICO AND THE SE GULF S OF 25N BETWEEN 80W-88W INCLUDING WRN CUBA. EXPECT MOIST CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLE HEAVY PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE OVER THE SRN GULF AS THE WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE WNW INTO THE SW GULF. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA FROM THE PRIME MERIDIAN AT 23N ALONG 21N11W TO THE COAST NEAR 14N17W AND OVER WATER TO 9N21W. THE ITCZ AXIS PICKS UP FROM 9N21W ALONG 10N30W 6N40W EQ52W. AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS JUST OFF THE W COAST OF AFRICA FROM 7N-14N BETWEEN 11W-17W. ALL OTHER CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL WAVES. SEE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION ABOVE. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SOUTH CAROLINA INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...INTO THE WEST-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...AND FINALLY TO CENTRAL MEXICO. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE IN MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 25N. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTH OF 26N TO THE EAST OF 87W...ALONG THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA BORDER...AND IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AGAIN TO THE SOUTH OF 26N TO THE WEST OF 90W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA COAST. A TROPICAL WAVE PASSES THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND REACHES MEXICO BETWEEN GUATEMALA AND THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ALSO IS HELPING TO SPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...AND INTO THE REST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... ONE TROPICAL WAVE IS INLAND...FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO TO MEXICO BETWEEN GUATEMALA AND THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ALSO IS HELPING TO SPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...AND INTO THE REST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. OTHER RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO THE SOUTH OF 15N TO THE WEST OF 78W. THE MONSOON TROUGH RUNS FROM NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA AND BEYOND EL SALVADOR. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. SAHARAN DUST COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 7N TO 22N BETWEEN 35W AND 57W. IT IS EASILY POSSIBLE THAT THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS DUST MAY REACH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS AND WATERS AT LEAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER HAS MOVED SOUTHWARD FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS...NOW ABOUT 140 NM TO THE NORTH OF THE MONA PASSAGE. CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO 27N BETWEEN 60W AND 80W. GET READY FOR MORE RAIN...AT LEAST TO THE EAST OF 70W AS LONG AS THE CYCLONIC CENTER AND CYCLONIC WIND FLOW REMAIN INTACT. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH SOUTH CAROLINA INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO HAS ITS ORIGINS MORE TO THE NORTHEAST...ALONG THE U.S.A. EAST COAST. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS IN BETWEEN THAT TROUGH AND AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW THAT COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 10N TO 27N BETWEEN 60W AND 80W. RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 33N72W 30N76W 27N78W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 31N52W TO 28N72W TO SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN AFRICA AND FLORIDA. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 24N48W...SURROUNDED BY COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 27W PASSING THROUGH 32N TO 26N. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT/WALTON 000 AXNT20 KNHC 262354 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE ERN ATLC EXTENDING FROM 17N28W TO 8N31W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. THE WAVE CONTINUES TO LIE JUST W OF A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SEEN IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS MAINLY W OF THE AXIS FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 32W-40W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES EXTENDING FROM 19N55W TO 12N59W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE OF WHICH THE SRN EXTENT IS ALREADY OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS MAINLY W OF THE AXIS FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 61W-70W...AND FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 56W-60W. STRONG ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE SE CARIBBEAN AND THE LESSER ANTILLES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE WWD INTO THE BASIN. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS DOWN THE WRN SIDE OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 22N89W TO 15N93W MOVING WNW NEAR 10 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE THAT COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN AND THE SRN GULF. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE ENTIRE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND GUATEMALA. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS ACROSS SRN MEXICO AND THE SE GULF S OF 25N BETWEEN 80W-88W INCLUDING WRN CUBA. EXPECT MOIST CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLE HEAVY PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE OVER THE SRN GULF AS THE WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE WNW INTO THE SW GULF. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA FROM THE PRIME MERIDIAN AT 23N ALONG 21N11W TO THE COAST NEAR 14N17W AND OVER WATER TO 9N21W. THE ITCZ AXIS PICKS UP FROM 9N21W ALONG 10N30W 6N40W EQ52W. AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS JUST OFF THE W COAST OF AFRICA FROM 7N-14N BETWEEN 11W-17W. ALL OTHER CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL WAVES. SEE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION ABOVE. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SOUTH CAROLINA INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...INTO THE WEST-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...AND FINALLY TO CENTRAL MEXICO. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE IN MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 25N. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTH OF 26N TO THE EAST OF 87W...ALONG THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA BORDER...AND IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AGAIN TO THE SOUTH OF 26N TO THE WEST OF 90W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA COAST. A TROPICAL WAVE PASSES THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND REACHES MEXICO BETWEEN GUATEMALA AND THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ALSO IS HELPING TO SPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...AND INTO THE REST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... ONE TROPICAL WAVE IS INLAND...FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO TO MEXICO BETWEEN GUATEMALA AND THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ALSO IS HELPING TO SPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...AND INTO THE REST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. OTHER RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO THE SOUTH OF 15N TO THE WEST OF 78W. THE MONSOON TROUGH RUNS FROM NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA AND BEYOND EL SALVADOR. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. SAHARAN DUST COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 7N TO 22N BETWEEN 35W AND 57W. IT IS EASILY POSSIBLE THAT THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS DUST MAY REACH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS AND WATERS AT LEAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER HAS MOVED SOUTHWARD FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS...NOW ABOUT 140 NM TO THE NORTH OF THE MONA PASSAGE. CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO 27N BETWEEN 60W AND 80W. GET READY FOR MORE RAIN...AT LEAST TO THE EAST OF 70W AS LONG AS THE CYCLONIC CENTER AND CYCLONIC WIND FLOW REMAIN INTACT. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH SOUTH CAROLINA INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO HAS ITS ORIGINS MORE TO THE NORTHEAST...ALONG THE U.S.A. EAST COAST. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS IN BETWEEN THAT TROUGH AND AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW THAT COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 10N TO 27N BETWEEN 60W AND 80W. RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 33N72W 30N76W 27N78W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 31N52W TO 28N72W TO SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN AFRICA AND FLORIDA. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 24N48W...SURROUNDED BY COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 27W PASSING THROUGH 32N TO 26N. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT/WALTON