000 AXNT20 KNHC 261804 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE STARTS NEAR 12N27W AND IT CONTINUES TO 12N29W 7N30W. THIS WAVE CONTINUES TO BE ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF AN AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. PRECIPITATION EASILY IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVE... FROM 6N TO 12N BETWEEN 20W AND 30W. BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 18N BETWEEN 20W AND 30W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N54W 15N57W 12N58W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 15N TO 16N BETWEEN 57W AND 58W. OTHER PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE FROM 13N TO 20N BETWEEN 52W AND 60W. IT IS EASILY POSSIBLE FOR THIS PRECIPITATION TO REACH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO IF IT REMAINS INTACT. SAHARAN DUST COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 7N TO 22N BETWEEN 35W AND 56W. IT IS EASILY POSSIBLE THAT THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS DUST MAY REACH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS AND WATERS AT LEAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL WAVE GOES FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO SOUTHERN MEXICO NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF GUATEMALA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SPANS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN 80W AND CENTRAL AMERICA. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 80W AND 82W...FROM 20N TO 21N BETWEEN 85W AND 86W...AND FROM 19N TO 20N BETWEEN THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA COAST THAT IS NEAR 88W AND 89W. OTHER ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE WEST OF 20W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE PRIME MERIDIAN ALONG 23N AND IT CONTINUES TO 20N15W TO 9N21W. THE ITCZ IS ALONG 9N21W 7N32W 6N39W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 45W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 3S48W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS/ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 5N TO 6N BETWEEN 31W AND 39W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 6N40W 4N50W...AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 7N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W...MOSTLY INLAND. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO EASTERN MEXICO NEAR 23N100W. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTH OF 28N TO THE EAST OF 86W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 60 TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 27N85W 24N93W 22N98W. OTHER BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS COVER THE REST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE WHOLE LINE OF CLOUDINESS/PRECIPITATION THAT STRETCHES FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA TO THE MEXICO GULF COAST NEAR 22N98W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... ONE TROPICAL WAVE IS INLAND...FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO TO THE MEXICO BORDER WITH SOUTHWESTERN GUATEMALA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ALSO IS HELPING TO SPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION THAT ARE TO THE WEST OF 80W. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. SAHARAN DUST COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 7N TO 22N BETWEEN 35W AND 56W. IT IS EASILY POSSIBLE THAT THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS DUST MAY REACH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS AND WATERS AT LEAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER HAS MOVED SOUTHWARD FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. IT NOW IS LOCATED NEAR THE EASTERN PART OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/THE MONA PASSAGE. CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO 27N BETWEEN 60W AND 80W. GET READY FOR MORE RAIN...AT LEAST TO THE EAST OF 70W AS LONG AS THE CYCLONIC CENTER AND CYCLONIC WIND FLOW REMAIN INTACT. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO HAS ITS ORIGINS MORE TO THE NORTHEAST...ALONG THE U.S.A. EAST COAST. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS IN BETWEEN THAT TROUGH AND AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW THAT COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 10N TO 27N BETWEEN 60W AND 80W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N53W TO 31N72W TO SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA. BROAD ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN AFRICA AND FLORIDA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT 000 AXNT20 KNHC 261804 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE STARTS NEAR 12N27W AND IT CONTINUES TO 12N29W 7N30W. THIS WAVE CONTINUES TO BE ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF AN AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. PRECIPITATION EASILY IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVE... FROM 6N TO 12N BETWEEN 20W AND 30W. BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 18N BETWEEN 20W AND 30W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N54W 15N57W 12N58W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 15N TO 16N BETWEEN 57W AND 58W. OTHER PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE FROM 13N TO 20N BETWEEN 52W AND 60W. IT IS EASILY POSSIBLE FOR THIS PRECIPITATION TO REACH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO IF IT REMAINS INTACT. SAHARAN DUST COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 7N TO 22N BETWEEN 35W AND 56W. IT IS EASILY POSSIBLE THAT THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS DUST MAY REACH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS AND WATERS AT LEAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL WAVE GOES FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO SOUTHERN MEXICO NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF GUATEMALA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SPANS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN 80W AND CENTRAL AMERICA. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 80W AND 82W...FROM 20N TO 21N BETWEEN 85W AND 86W...AND FROM 19N TO 20N BETWEEN THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA COAST THAT IS NEAR 88W AND 89W. OTHER ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE WEST OF 20W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE PRIME MERIDIAN ALONG 23N AND IT CONTINUES TO 20N15W TO 9N21W. THE ITCZ IS ALONG 9N21W 7N32W 6N39W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 45W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 3S48W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS/ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 5N TO 6N BETWEEN 31W AND 39W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 6N40W 4N50W...AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 7N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W...MOSTLY INLAND. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO EASTERN MEXICO NEAR 23N100W. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTH OF 28N TO THE EAST OF 86W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 60 TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 27N85W 24N93W 22N98W. OTHER BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS COVER THE REST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE WHOLE LINE OF CLOUDINESS/PRECIPITATION THAT STRETCHES FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA TO THE MEXICO GULF COAST NEAR 22N98W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... ONE TROPICAL WAVE IS INLAND...FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO TO THE MEXICO BORDER WITH SOUTHWESTERN GUATEMALA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ALSO IS HELPING TO SPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION THAT ARE TO THE WEST OF 80W. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. SAHARAN DUST COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 7N TO 22N BETWEEN 35W AND 56W. IT IS EASILY POSSIBLE THAT THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS DUST MAY REACH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS AND WATERS AT LEAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER HAS MOVED SOUTHWARD FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. IT NOW IS LOCATED NEAR THE EASTERN PART OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/THE MONA PASSAGE. CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO 27N BETWEEN 60W AND 80W. GET READY FOR MORE RAIN...AT LEAST TO THE EAST OF 70W AS LONG AS THE CYCLONIC CENTER AND CYCLONIC WIND FLOW REMAIN INTACT. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO HAS ITS ORIGINS MORE TO THE NORTHEAST...ALONG THE U.S.A. EAST COAST. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS IN BETWEEN THAT TROUGH AND AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW THAT COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 10N TO 27N BETWEEN 60W AND 80W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N53W TO 31N72W TO SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA. BROAD ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN AFRICA AND FLORIDA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT