000 AXNT20 KNHC 261130 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE ERN ATLC EXTENDING FROM 17N26W JUST W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO 6N28W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THE WAVE ALIGNS WITH CYCLONIC FLOW SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS. THE WAVE IS OF THE WRN EDGE OF A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 19W-23W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 28W-34W. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 18N54W TO 12N57W W 15-20 KT. THE WAVE PRECEDES A SURGE OF ENHANCED MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM W OF THE WAVE AXIS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 22N88W TO 15N91W MOVING WNW AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE LIES ON THE NW SIDE OF A LARGE AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE PRESENT ACROSS THE WRN CARIBBEAN THAT IS NOW MOVING INTO THE SE GULF. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS INDICATED BY SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF WRN CUBA WITHIN 130 NM N OF THE COAST. A CLUSTER OF STRONG CONVECTION HAS ALSO FLARED UP OVER SRN BELIZE. WHILE ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED FROM 6 HRS AGO...CONVECTION IS LIKELY OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND THE SE GULF AS THE WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE WNW. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA FROM THE PRIME MERIDIAN AT 21N ALONG 23N4W TO THE COAST AT 20N16W. THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES TO THE S OF A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 8N21W 7N30W 5N40W 2N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE AXIS BETWEEN 34W-38W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FLARED UP ALONG THE MEXICO COAST FROM 22N-25N BETWEEN 96W-98W...AND OFF THE NW COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR TAMPA FROM 27N-29N BETWEEN 83W-84W. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AROUND A NARROW SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT LINES THE NRN GULF COAST FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO JUST S OF THE SRN TIP OF TEXAS. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS PROVIDING MOIST CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN. ISOLATED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ALSO REMAIN WITHIN 50 NM OF A LINE FROM 29N83W TO 23N98W. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FLARED UP OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO INCLUDING THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND S FLORIDA FROM 23N-25N E OF 88W LIKELY INFLUENCED BY A TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS NOW OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A SMALL AREA OF DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE FAR NW GULF WHICH IS EXPERIENCING FAIR WEATHER. MOIST CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN...ESPECIALLY THE SRN GULF...AS THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE BASIN...AND THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA MOVES WNW INTO THE BASIN. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE TROPICAL WAVE PREVIOUSLY OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN IS NOW ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. HOWEVER...A LARGE AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS BEHIND THE WAVE ACROSS THE WRN CARIBBEAN W OF 79W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS NRN COLOMBIA AND THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL WATERS DUE TO THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AS WELL AS THE INFLUENCE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE E PACIFIC ACROSS COAST RICA TO NRN COLOMBIA. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS ACROSS COAST RICA AND NICARAGUA DUE TO THE SAME REASONING. STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO ALONG A LINE FROM 12N82 OFF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA TO 18N85W...N OF HONDURAS. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE WRN CARIBBEAN. THE ERN CARIBBEAN IS UNDER MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS WITH AN AREA OF ISOLATED SHOWERS E OF 68W EMBEDDED IN THE 15-20 KT ELY TRADEWIND FLOW. ALOFT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS OVER THE WRN CARIBBEAN WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ERN CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LOW N OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THIS IS LIKELY AIDING SOME OF THE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO INCREASE OVER THE ERN CARIBBEAN AS A TROPICAL WAVE E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MOVES WWD TOWARDS THE BASIN. STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW N OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC SHIFTS S. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE FAR WRN ATLC EXTENDING JUST OFF THE ERN SEABOARD AND INTO THE NRN GULF. A NARROW UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS TO THE E OF THE TROUGH FROM THE WRN CARIBBEAN TO NEAR 34N65W. THIS PATTERN CREATES AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WHICH IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM OF A LINE FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 24N79W TO 32N73W. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 18N-25N BETWEEN 61W-70W DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 23N69W. UPPER RIDGING COVERS THE MAJORITY OF THE CENTRAL ATLC CENTERED NEAR 32N49W SUPPORTING WEAK SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL AND ERN ATLC AROUND A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 32N51W PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN ATLC ALONG 27W SUPPORTING A FRONTAL SYSTEM N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. A LARGE SAHARAN AIR LAYER CONSISTING OF DRY AND DUSTY AIR IS ACROSS THE ERN AND CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC E OF 50W AROUND THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE ERN ATLC FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON 000 AXNT20 KNHC 261130 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE ERN ATLC EXTENDING FROM 17N26W JUST W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO 6N28W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THE WAVE ALIGNS WITH CYCLONIC FLOW SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS. THE WAVE IS OF THE WRN EDGE OF A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 19W-23W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 28W-34W. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 18N54W TO 12N57W W 15-20 KT. THE WAVE PRECEDES A SURGE OF ENHANCED MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM W OF THE WAVE AXIS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 22N88W TO 15N91W MOVING WNW AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE LIES ON THE NW SIDE OF A LARGE AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE PRESENT ACROSS THE WRN CARIBBEAN THAT IS NOW MOVING INTO THE SE GULF. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS INDICATED BY SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF WRN CUBA WITHIN 130 NM N OF THE COAST. A CLUSTER OF STRONG CONVECTION HAS ALSO FLARED UP OVER SRN BELIZE. WHILE ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED FROM 6 HRS AGO...CONVECTION IS LIKELY OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND THE SE GULF AS THE WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE WNW. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA FROM THE PRIME MERIDIAN AT 21N ALONG 23N4W TO THE COAST AT 20N16W. THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES TO THE S OF A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 8N21W 7N30W 5N40W 2N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE AXIS BETWEEN 34W-38W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FLARED UP ALONG THE MEXICO COAST FROM 22N-25N BETWEEN 96W-98W...AND OFF THE NW COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR TAMPA FROM 27N-29N BETWEEN 83W-84W. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AROUND A NARROW SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT LINES THE NRN GULF COAST FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO JUST S OF THE SRN TIP OF TEXAS. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS PROVIDING MOIST CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN. ISOLATED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ALSO REMAIN WITHIN 50 NM OF A LINE FROM 29N83W TO 23N98W. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FLARED UP OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO INCLUDING THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND S FLORIDA FROM 23N-25N E OF 88W LIKELY INFLUENCED BY A TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS NOW OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A SMALL AREA OF DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE FAR NW GULF WHICH IS EXPERIENCING FAIR WEATHER. MOIST CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN...ESPECIALLY THE SRN GULF...AS THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE BASIN...AND THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA MOVES WNW INTO THE BASIN. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE TROPICAL WAVE PREVIOUSLY OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN IS NOW ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. HOWEVER...A LARGE AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS BEHIND THE WAVE ACROSS THE WRN CARIBBEAN W OF 79W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS NRN COLOMBIA AND THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL WATERS DUE TO THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AS WELL AS THE INFLUENCE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE E PACIFIC ACROSS COAST RICA TO NRN COLOMBIA. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS ACROSS COAST RICA AND NICARAGUA DUE TO THE SAME REASONING. STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO ALONG A LINE FROM 12N82 OFF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA TO 18N85W...N OF HONDURAS. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE WRN CARIBBEAN. THE ERN CARIBBEAN IS UNDER MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS WITH AN AREA OF ISOLATED SHOWERS E OF 68W EMBEDDED IN THE 15-20 KT ELY TRADEWIND FLOW. ALOFT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS OVER THE WRN CARIBBEAN WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ERN CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LOW N OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THIS IS LIKELY AIDING SOME OF THE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO INCREASE OVER THE ERN CARIBBEAN AS A TROPICAL WAVE E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MOVES WWD TOWARDS THE BASIN. STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW N OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC SHIFTS S. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE FAR WRN ATLC EXTENDING JUST OFF THE ERN SEABOARD AND INTO THE NRN GULF. A NARROW UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS TO THE E OF THE TROUGH FROM THE WRN CARIBBEAN TO NEAR 34N65W. THIS PATTERN CREATES AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WHICH IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM OF A LINE FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 24N79W TO 32N73W. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 18N-25N BETWEEN 61W-70W DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 23N69W. UPPER RIDGING COVERS THE MAJORITY OF THE CENTRAL ATLC CENTERED NEAR 32N49W SUPPORTING WEAK SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL AND ERN ATLC AROUND A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 32N51W PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN ATLC ALONG 27W SUPPORTING A FRONTAL SYSTEM N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. A LARGE SAHARAN AIR LAYER CONSISTING OF DRY AND DUSTY AIR IS ACROSS THE ERN AND CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC E OF 50W AROUND THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE ERN ATLC FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON