000 AXNT20 KNHC 260553 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OFF THE W COAST OF AFRICA EXTENDING FROM 15N24W ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO 7N26W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THE WAVE WAS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY EWD TO BETTER ALIGN WITH CYCLONIC FLOW SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS. THE WAVE IS OF THE WRN EDGE OF A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 19W-23W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 27W-32W. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 19N50W TO 12N54W W NEAR 15 KT. THE WAVE PRECEDES A SURGE OF ENHANCED MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. A TROPICAL WAVE IS EXITING THE NW CARIBBEAN ALONG 23N84W TO 19N88W MOVING WNW NEAR 15 KT. THE WAVE LIES ON THE NW SIDE OF A LARGE AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE PRESENT ACROSS THE WRN CARIBBEAN. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS INDICATED BY SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF WRN CUBA WITHIN 100 NM NW OF THE WAVE AXIS. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS ALSO MOVING ACROSS THE WRN YUCATAN PENINSULA. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS THE SE GULF OF MEXICO AS THE WAVE MOVES WNW. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA FROM THE PRIME MERIDIAN AT 22N ALONG 23N5W TO THE COAST AT 13N17W. THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES FROM THE COAST ALONG 11N26W 7N37W 3N49W. THE ONLY AREAS OF CONVECTION ARE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL WAVES. SEE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... STRONG SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEGUN TO DIE DOWN OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS ALONG A LINE FROM TAMPA FLORIDA NEAR 29N83W TO THE MEXICAN COAST NEAR 23N98W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN WITHIN 50 NM OF THIS LINE. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FLARED UP OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO INCLUDING THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND S FLORIDA FROM 23N-26N E OF 87W LIKELY INFLUENCED BY A TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS MOVING OUT OF THE NW CARIBBEAN AND CURRENTLY LIES OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. ALOFT...A SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO SIT OVER THE NRN GULF EXTENDING FROM MOBILE ALABAMA TO THE SRN TIP OF TEXAS WHICH IS CAUSING MOIST SWLY FLOW OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN WITH A SMALL AREA OF DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE OVER THE FAR NW GULF WHICH IS EXPERIENCING FAIR WEATHER. MOIST CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN...ESPECIALLY THE SE GULF...AS THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE BASIN...AND THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL MOVES WNW INTO THE BASIN. CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...BUT WILL SOON BE MOVING OUT OF THE BASIN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. A LARGE AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS BEHIND THE WAVE ACROSS THE WRN CARIBBEAN W OF 77W. A CLUSTER OF STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER NRN COLOMBIA FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 73W-77W INFLUENCED BY THE HIGH MOISTURE VALUES AND THE MONSOON TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE E PACIFIC ACROSS NICARAGUA TO NRN COLOMBIA. STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALSO FLARED UP OVER NICARAGUA FOR THE SAME REASONING. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER NRN NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE WRN CARIBBEAN. THE ERN CARIBBEAN IS UNDER MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE 15-20 KT ELY TRADEWIND FLOW. ALOFT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS OVER THE WRN CARIBBEAN WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ERN CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LOW N OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. EXPECT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE OVER THE WRN CARIBBEAN AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THIS AREA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE FAR WRN ATLC EXTENDING DOWN THE ERN SEABOARD AND INTO THE NRN GULF. A NARROW UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS TO THE E OF THE TROUGH FROM THE WRN CARIBBEAN. THIS PATTERN CREATES AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WHICH IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM OF A LINE FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 24N80W TO 31N75W. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM 19N-25N BETWEEN 62W-68W DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 24N69W. UPPER RIDGING COVERS THE MAJORITY OF THE CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING WEAK SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL AND ERN ATLC PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN ATLC ALONG 29W SUPPORTING A FRONTAL SYSTEM N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. A LARGE SAHARAN AIR LAYER CONSISTING OF DRY AND DUSTY AIR IS ACROSS THE ERN AND CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC E OF 50W SURROUNDING THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT EXTENDS THROUGH THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON 000 AXNT20 KNHC 260553 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OFF THE W COAST OF AFRICA EXTENDING FROM 15N24W ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO 7N26W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THE WAVE WAS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY EWD TO BETTER ALIGN WITH CYCLONIC FLOW SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS. THE WAVE IS OF THE WRN EDGE OF A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 19W-23W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 27W-32W. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 19N50W TO 12N54W W NEAR 15 KT. THE WAVE PRECEDES A SURGE OF ENHANCED MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. A TROPICAL WAVE IS EXITING THE NW CARIBBEAN ALONG 23N84W TO 19N88W MOVING WNW NEAR 15 KT. THE WAVE LIES ON THE NW SIDE OF A LARGE AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE PRESENT ACROSS THE WRN CARIBBEAN. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS INDICATED BY SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF WRN CUBA WITHIN 100 NM NW OF THE WAVE AXIS. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS ALSO MOVING ACROSS THE WRN YUCATAN PENINSULA. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS THE SE GULF OF MEXICO AS THE WAVE MOVES WNW. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA FROM THE PRIME MERIDIAN AT 22N ALONG 23N5W TO THE COAST AT 13N17W. THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES FROM THE COAST ALONG 11N26W 7N37W 3N49W. THE ONLY AREAS OF CONVECTION ARE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL WAVES. SEE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... STRONG SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEGUN TO DIE DOWN OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS ALONG A LINE FROM TAMPA FLORIDA NEAR 29N83W TO THE MEXICAN COAST NEAR 23N98W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN WITHIN 50 NM OF THIS LINE. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FLARED UP OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO INCLUDING THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND S FLORIDA FROM 23N-26N E OF 87W LIKELY INFLUENCED BY A TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS MOVING OUT OF THE NW CARIBBEAN AND CURRENTLY LIES OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. ALOFT...A SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO SIT OVER THE NRN GULF EXTENDING FROM MOBILE ALABAMA TO THE SRN TIP OF TEXAS WHICH IS CAUSING MOIST SWLY FLOW OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN WITH A SMALL AREA OF DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE OVER THE FAR NW GULF WHICH IS EXPERIENCING FAIR WEATHER. MOIST CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN...ESPECIALLY THE SE GULF...AS THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE BASIN...AND THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL MOVES WNW INTO THE BASIN. CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...BUT WILL SOON BE MOVING OUT OF THE BASIN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. A LARGE AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS BEHIND THE WAVE ACROSS THE WRN CARIBBEAN W OF 77W. A CLUSTER OF STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER NRN COLOMBIA FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 73W-77W INFLUENCED BY THE HIGH MOISTURE VALUES AND THE MONSOON TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE E PACIFIC ACROSS NICARAGUA TO NRN COLOMBIA. STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALSO FLARED UP OVER NICARAGUA FOR THE SAME REASONING. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER NRN NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE WRN CARIBBEAN. THE ERN CARIBBEAN IS UNDER MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE 15-20 KT ELY TRADEWIND FLOW. ALOFT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS OVER THE WRN CARIBBEAN WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ERN CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LOW N OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. EXPECT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE OVER THE WRN CARIBBEAN AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THIS AREA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE FAR WRN ATLC EXTENDING DOWN THE ERN SEABOARD AND INTO THE NRN GULF. A NARROW UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS TO THE E OF THE TROUGH FROM THE WRN CARIBBEAN. THIS PATTERN CREATES AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WHICH IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM OF A LINE FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 24N80W TO 31N75W. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM 19N-25N BETWEEN 62W-68W DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 24N69W. UPPER RIDGING COVERS THE MAJORITY OF THE CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING WEAK SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL AND ERN ATLC PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN ATLC ALONG 29W SUPPORTING A FRONTAL SYSTEM N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. A LARGE SAHARAN AIR LAYER CONSISTING OF DRY AND DUSTY AIR IS ACROSS THE ERN AND CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC E OF 50W SURROUNDING THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT EXTENDS THROUGH THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON