000 AXNT20 KNHC 252359 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLC ANALYZED FROM 16N26W TO 8N29W MOVING WEST AT ABOUT 15 KT. THE WAVE AXIS IS WELL WEST FROM THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH DISCUSSION. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LATEST MODEL DATA SUGGEST THE WAVE AXIS MIGHT BE A FEW DEGREES E OF CURRENT POSITION. THEREFORE...WILL MAKE FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS ON THE 00 UTC ANALYSIS TO REPOSITION THE WAVE AXIS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC ANALYZED FROM 18N50W TO 11N52W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE MOVES AHEAD OF A SURGE OF A DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. HOWEVER...NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN ANALYZED FROM 22N84W TO 16N88W MOVING NW 10-15 KT. THE WAVE IN EMBEDDED IN A BROAD REGION OF DEEP MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW 20-25 KT IS OBSERVED IN THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD PATTERN. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION W OF 77W ALSO AFFECTING INLAND PORTIONS IN CENTRAL AMERICA. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION IS ALSO ASSOCIATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH ANALYZED ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA OVER NICARAGUA TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF COLOMBIA. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WNW INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS INLAND OVER AFRICA. THE ITCZ AXIS ENTERS THE ATLC OFF THE COAST OF SENEGAL NEAR 13N17W CONTINUING SW ALONG 9N20W TO 10N27W...REAPPEARING W OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 8N31W CONTINUING SW ALONG 5N41W TO THE EXTREME NE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 4N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF 24W FROM 8N-18N. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION IS ALSO ASSOCIATED TO THE TROPICAL WAVE MENTIONED ABOVE. ISOLATED WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 50 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS W OF 24W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... CONVECTION LINGERS OVER A GREAT PORTION OF THE GULF THIS EVENING AS A AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE SLOWLY MOVES E ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF...BEING PUSHED BY THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WOBBLING OVER CENTRAL MEXICO. LAST VISIBLE PICTURES OF THE DAY SHOWED SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 100/130 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 28N87W TO 22N96W. ALSO...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED IN GUSTY SRLY FLOW BEGINS TO ENTER THE FAR SE GULF THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND WESTERN CUBA... ASSOCIATED TO A TROPICAL WAVE ANALYZED IN THE NW CARIBBEAN. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE GULF OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF CONVECTION...GUSTY WINDS AND SEAS ABOVE 10 FT IN THE SE GULF. FAIR WEATHER WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS IS OBSERVED ELSEWHERE OUTSIDE THE CONVECTION AREA. CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE FAR NW BASIN. CONSEQUENTLY... THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ANALYZED ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA OVER NICARAGUA TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO FEATURES IS GENERATING A BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION W OF 77W ALSO AFFECTING INLAND PORTIONS IN CENTRAL AMERICA. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WNW INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. HOWEVER...PLENTY OF INSTABILITY WILL LINGER IN THE WSW CARIBBEAN AS THE MONSOON TROUGH SETTLES DOWN/SOUTH INTO THE FAR SW BASIN. WIDE SPREAD SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS ARE E OF 70W SUPPORTED BY DIVERGENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED TO AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED N OF THE COLOMBIA COAST AND UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NE OF HISPANIOLA. COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THIS AREA OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...SPREADING ACROSS THE N CENTRAL BASIN DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF THE EASTERN CONUS SEABOARD...PRODUCING A BROAD AREA OF DIFFLUENCE FLOW ALOFT SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING THE FAR W ATLC...INCLUDING THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS W OF 75W N OF 25N. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK E OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NNE OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 24N68W. HOWEVER...NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED TO THIS FEATURE. BROAD SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC DISCUSSION AREA...ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N47W. A BROAD AREA OF SAHARAN DUST ALOFT COVERS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC E OF 47W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA 000 AXNT20 KNHC 252359 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLC ANALYZED FROM 16N26W TO 8N29W MOVING WEST AT ABOUT 15 KT. THE WAVE AXIS IS WELL WEST FROM THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH DISCUSSION. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LATEST MODEL DATA SUGGEST THE WAVE AXIS MIGHT BE A FEW DEGREES E OF CURRENT POSITION. THEREFORE...WILL MAKE FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS ON THE 00 UTC ANALYSIS TO REPOSITION THE WAVE AXIS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC ANALYZED FROM 18N50W TO 11N52W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE MOVES AHEAD OF A SURGE OF A DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. HOWEVER...NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN ANALYZED FROM 22N84W TO 16N88W MOVING NW 10-15 KT. THE WAVE IN EMBEDDED IN A BROAD REGION OF DEEP MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW 20-25 KT IS OBSERVED IN THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD PATTERN. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION W OF 77W ALSO AFFECTING INLAND PORTIONS IN CENTRAL AMERICA. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION IS ALSO ASSOCIATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH ANALYZED ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA OVER NICARAGUA TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF COLOMBIA. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WNW INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS INLAND OVER AFRICA. THE ITCZ AXIS ENTERS THE ATLC OFF THE COAST OF SENEGAL NEAR 13N17W CONTINUING SW ALONG 9N20W TO 10N27W...REAPPEARING W OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 8N31W CONTINUING SW ALONG 5N41W TO THE EXTREME NE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 4N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF 24W FROM 8N-18N. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION IS ALSO ASSOCIATED TO THE TROPICAL WAVE MENTIONED ABOVE. ISOLATED WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 50 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS W OF 24W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... CONVECTION LINGERS OVER A GREAT PORTION OF THE GULF THIS EVENING AS A AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE SLOWLY MOVES E ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF...BEING PUSHED BY THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WOBBLING OVER CENTRAL MEXICO. LAST VISIBLE PICTURES OF THE DAY SHOWED SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 100/130 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 28N87W TO 22N96W. ALSO...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED IN GUSTY SRLY FLOW BEGINS TO ENTER THE FAR SE GULF THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND WESTERN CUBA... ASSOCIATED TO A TROPICAL WAVE ANALYZED IN THE NW CARIBBEAN. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE GULF OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF CONVECTION...GUSTY WINDS AND SEAS ABOVE 10 FT IN THE SE GULF. FAIR WEATHER WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS IS OBSERVED ELSEWHERE OUTSIDE THE CONVECTION AREA. CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE FAR NW BASIN. CONSEQUENTLY... THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ANALYZED ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA OVER NICARAGUA TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO FEATURES IS GENERATING A BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION W OF 77W ALSO AFFECTING INLAND PORTIONS IN CENTRAL AMERICA. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WNW INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. HOWEVER...PLENTY OF INSTABILITY WILL LINGER IN THE WSW CARIBBEAN AS THE MONSOON TROUGH SETTLES DOWN/SOUTH INTO THE FAR SW BASIN. WIDE SPREAD SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS ARE E OF 70W SUPPORTED BY DIVERGENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED TO AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED N OF THE COLOMBIA COAST AND UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NE OF HISPANIOLA. COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THIS AREA OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...SPREADING ACROSS THE N CENTRAL BASIN DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF THE EASTERN CONUS SEABOARD...PRODUCING A BROAD AREA OF DIFFLUENCE FLOW ALOFT SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING THE FAR W ATLC...INCLUDING THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS W OF 75W N OF 25N. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK E OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NNE OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 24N68W. HOWEVER...NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED TO THIS FEATURE. BROAD SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC DISCUSSION AREA...ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N47W. A BROAD AREA OF SAHARAN DUST ALOFT COVERS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC E OF 47W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA