000 AXNT20 KNHC 242356 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC WITH AXIS FROM 17N45W TO 10N48W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE PRECEDES A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION IS WITHIN 170 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS. A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN BASIN ANALYZED FROM 20N82W TO 11N82W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP LEVEL MOISTURE EVIDENT ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WAVE IS INTERACTING WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN GENERATING A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW 20-25 KT AND SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION S OF 20N BETWEEN 72W-85W INCLUDING INLAND OVER COLOMBIA...PANAMA...COSTA RICA...NICARAGUA...AND HONDURAS. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WNW ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND NW CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA AND ENTER THE E TROPICAL ATLC TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC ALONG 20N16W 15N22W 8N25W TO 4N32W WHERE IT CONTINUES AS THE ITCZ AXIS ALONG 1N40W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR EQ50W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-11N E OF 30W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ITS AXIS ACROSS THE ERN AND SE CONUS TO SOUTHERN TEXAS. CONTRASTINGLY...AN UPPER RIDGE SITS OVER CENTRAL MEXICO EXTENDING ITS AXIS EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE WEST ATLC OCEAN. THESE TWO FEATURES ARE GENERATING AN AREA OF DIFFLUENCE ALOFT SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 100 TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR 28N856 TO 22N96W. A RECENT ASCAT PASS COMBINED WITH MARINE OBS ACROSS THE GULF SH WED BROAD CYCLONIC TURN 15-25 KT ALONG THE LINE. OTHERWISE...THE SE BASIN IS DOMINATED BY DRY AIR ALOFT AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE... KEEPING FAIR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE OUTSIDE THE CONVECTION AREA. ALSO...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS OVER THE NE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1014 MB HIGH NEAR 30N85W. THIS RIDGE AS WELL AS THE CONVECTION MENTIONED ABOVE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE S GULF MON AS THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE WRN CARIBBEAN MOVES INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN BASIN AND IT IS STARTING TO INTERACT WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH OVER THE SW BASIN TO GENERATE A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW 20-25 KT... SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS S OF 20N BETWEEN 72W-85W. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WNW ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND NW CARIBBEAN BASIN WITH MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. OTHERWISE...FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE OBSERVED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA...WITH TRADE WINDS RAGING FROM 10-15 KT ACROSS THE AREA. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC AND WILL ENTER THE CARIBBEAN BY MONDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES OFF THE EASTERN CONUS SEABOARD SUPPORTING AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 100 NM OFF THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA N OF 25N. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK E OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATE A SHARP UPPER TROUGH/LOW CENTERED NEAR 25N70W. THIS SYSTEM IS GENERATING AN AREA OF SCATTERED WEAK SHOWERS FROM 22N-28N BETWEEN 65W-69W. A WEAK 1019 MB HIGH IS NW OF THIS AREA OF WEAK CONVECTION NEAR 29N69W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE N CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS OUR DISCUSSION AREA AS A SURFACE TROUGH NEAR 31N45W EXTENDING WSW TO 28N59W. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS OBSERVED AT THE MOMENT. A WEAKENING 1021 MB HIGH IS TO THE SE OF THE TROUGH AXIS NEAR 27N43W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC DISCUSSION AREA...ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH W OF PORTUGAL NEAR 41N17W. AN BROAD OUTBURST OF SAHARAN DUST COVERS THE EASTERN ATLC BETWEEN THE W COAST OF AFRICA TO 40W PRECEDING THE NEXT POSSIBLE TROPICAL WAVE GETTING READY TO EMERGE OFF THE AFRICAN COAST. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA 000 AXNT20 KNHC 242356 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC WITH AXIS FROM 17N45W TO 10N48W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE PRECEDES A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION IS WITHIN 170 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS. A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN BASIN ANALYZED FROM 20N82W TO 11N82W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP LEVEL MOISTURE EVIDENT ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WAVE IS INTERACTING WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN GENERATING A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW 20-25 KT AND SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION S OF 20N BETWEEN 72W-85W INCLUDING INLAND OVER COLOMBIA...PANAMA...COSTA RICA...NICARAGUA...AND HONDURAS. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WNW ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND NW CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA AND ENTER THE E TROPICAL ATLC TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC ALONG 20N16W 15N22W 8N25W TO 4N32W WHERE IT CONTINUES AS THE ITCZ AXIS ALONG 1N40W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR EQ50W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-11N E OF 30W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ITS AXIS ACROSS THE ERN AND SE CONUS TO SOUTHERN TEXAS. CONTRASTINGLY...AN UPPER RIDGE SITS OVER CENTRAL MEXICO EXTENDING ITS AXIS EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE WEST ATLC OCEAN. THESE TWO FEATURES ARE GENERATING AN AREA OF DIFFLUENCE ALOFT SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 100 TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR 28N856 TO 22N96W. A RECENT ASCAT PASS COMBINED WITH MARINE OBS ACROSS THE GULF SH WED BROAD CYCLONIC TURN 15-25 KT ALONG THE LINE. OTHERWISE...THE SE BASIN IS DOMINATED BY DRY AIR ALOFT AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE... KEEPING FAIR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE OUTSIDE THE CONVECTION AREA. ALSO...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS OVER THE NE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1014 MB HIGH NEAR 30N85W. THIS RIDGE AS WELL AS THE CONVECTION MENTIONED ABOVE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE S GULF MON AS THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE WRN CARIBBEAN MOVES INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN BASIN AND IT IS STARTING TO INTERACT WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH OVER THE SW BASIN TO GENERATE A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW 20-25 KT... SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS S OF 20N BETWEEN 72W-85W. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WNW ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND NW CARIBBEAN BASIN WITH MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. OTHERWISE...FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE OBSERVED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA...WITH TRADE WINDS RAGING FROM 10-15 KT ACROSS THE AREA. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC AND WILL ENTER THE CARIBBEAN BY MONDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES OFF THE EASTERN CONUS SEABOARD SUPPORTING AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 100 NM OFF THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA N OF 25N. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK E OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATE A SHARP UPPER TROUGH/LOW CENTERED NEAR 25N70W. THIS SYSTEM IS GENERATING AN AREA OF SCATTERED WEAK SHOWERS FROM 22N-28N BETWEEN 65W-69W. A WEAK 1019 MB HIGH IS NW OF THIS AREA OF WEAK CONVECTION NEAR 29N69W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE N CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS OUR DISCUSSION AREA AS A SURFACE TROUGH NEAR 31N45W EXTENDING WSW TO 28N59W. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS OBSERVED AT THE MOMENT. A WEAKENING 1021 MB HIGH IS TO THE SE OF THE TROUGH AXIS NEAR 27N43W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC DISCUSSION AREA...ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH W OF PORTUGAL NEAR 41N17W. AN BROAD OUTBURST OF SAHARAN DUST COVERS THE EASTERN ATLC BETWEEN THE W COAST OF AFRICA TO 40W PRECEDING THE NEXT POSSIBLE TROPICAL WAVE GETTING READY TO EMERGE OFF THE AFRICAN COAST. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA