000 AXNT20 KNHC 241756 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IN THE TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 10N-17N ALONG 46W MOVING W NEAR 20-25 KT. WAVE REMAINS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A SURGE OF DEEP LEVEL MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AND IS WELL DEFINED IN THE UPPER LEVEL SATELLITE WINDS WITH NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS FROM 11N-17N ALONG 80W MOVING WNW NEAR 20-25 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP LEVEL MOISTURE AS DEPICTED BY THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WAVE IS INTERACTING WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN GENERATING SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION S OF 15N TO INLAND OVER COLOMBIA...PANAMA AND NICARAGUA BETWEEN 73W-84W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA ALONG 19N17W THEN SW INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC ALONG 16N20W 7N24W TO 3N30W WHERE IT CONTINUES AS THE ITCZ AXIS ALONG THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 40W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 50W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 14W-19W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 20W-30W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS EXTENDING TO S TEXAS...AND AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE W GULF NARROWLY EXTENDING TO CENTRAL FLORIDA IS ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL MEXICO. THESE TWO UPPER LEVEL FEATURES ARE CREATING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM OF A LINE FROM 22N98W TO 30N87W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS OVER THE E GULF ANCHORED BY A 1015 MB HIGH OVER SW GEORGIA AND A 1019 MB HIGH OVER THE WEST TROPICAL ATLANTIC. EXPECT THE WEAK SURFACE RIDGE TO PREVAIL THROUGH LATE SUN. STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE S GULF MON AS THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN MOVES INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A NARROWING UPPER TROUGH IN THE W ATLC EXTENDS INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS OVER BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 11N82W INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION OVER COSTA RICA NEAR 11N84W. INTERACTING WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE...SEE ABOVE...CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEING GENERATED S OF 15N TO INLAND OVER COLOMBIA...PANAMA...NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS BETWEEN 73W-84W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE AREA FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 69W-80W. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE FURTHER W INTO THE W CARIBBEAN TODAY THEN ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN THIS WEEKEND AND INTO GULF OF MEXICO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC AND WILL BE IN NE CARIBBEAN BY MON. THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TROPICAL WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN AND SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG E TO SE FLOW ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD UPPER LOW COVERS THE W ATLC CENTERED NEAR 24N70W GENERATING A LINE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 25N80W TO 27N78W OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA. SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE ATLANTIC WITH A 1019 MB HIGH IS NEAR 29N69W...A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 27N42W...AND A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 33N52W. THE SURFACE RIDGING IS SPLIT BY A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE END OF A COLD FRONT NEAR 32N44W TO 31N46W WITH THE TROUGH TO 28N59W SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC. POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OVER THE TROUGH AXIS. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS UNDER FAIR CONDITIONS TODAY. AN OUTBURST OF SAHARAN DUST EXTENDS FROM 9N-24N BETWEEN THE W COAST OF AFRICA TO 38W PRECEDING THE NEXT POSSIBLE TROPICAL WAVE GETTING READY TO EMERGE OFF THE AFRICAN COAST. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MONTALVO/HUFFMAN 000 AXNT20 KNHC 241756 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IN THE TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 10N-17N ALONG 46W MOVING W NEAR 20-25 KT. WAVE REMAINS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A SURGE OF DEEP LEVEL MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AND IS WELL DEFINED IN THE UPPER LEVEL SATELLITE WINDS WITH NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS FROM 11N-17N ALONG 80W MOVING WNW NEAR 20-25 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP LEVEL MOISTURE AS DEPICTED BY THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WAVE IS INTERACTING WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN GENERATING SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION S OF 15N TO INLAND OVER COLOMBIA...PANAMA AND NICARAGUA BETWEEN 73W-84W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA ALONG 19N17W THEN SW INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC ALONG 16N20W 7N24W TO 3N30W WHERE IT CONTINUES AS THE ITCZ AXIS ALONG THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 40W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 50W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 14W-19W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 20W-30W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS EXTENDING TO S TEXAS...AND AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE W GULF NARROWLY EXTENDING TO CENTRAL FLORIDA IS ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL MEXICO. THESE TWO UPPER LEVEL FEATURES ARE CREATING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM OF A LINE FROM 22N98W TO 30N87W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS OVER THE E GULF ANCHORED BY A 1015 MB HIGH OVER SW GEORGIA AND A 1019 MB HIGH OVER THE WEST TROPICAL ATLANTIC. EXPECT THE WEAK SURFACE RIDGE TO PREVAIL THROUGH LATE SUN. STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE S GULF MON AS THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN MOVES INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A NARROWING UPPER TROUGH IN THE W ATLC EXTENDS INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS OVER BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 11N82W INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION OVER COSTA RICA NEAR 11N84W. INTERACTING WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE...SEE ABOVE...CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEING GENERATED S OF 15N TO INLAND OVER COLOMBIA...PANAMA...NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS BETWEEN 73W-84W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE AREA FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 69W-80W. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE FURTHER W INTO THE W CARIBBEAN TODAY THEN ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN THIS WEEKEND AND INTO GULF OF MEXICO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC AND WILL BE IN NE CARIBBEAN BY MON. THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TROPICAL WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN AND SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG E TO SE FLOW ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD UPPER LOW COVERS THE W ATLC CENTERED NEAR 24N70W GENERATING A LINE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 25N80W TO 27N78W OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA. SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE ATLANTIC WITH A 1019 MB HIGH IS NEAR 29N69W...A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 27N42W...AND A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 33N52W. THE SURFACE RIDGING IS SPLIT BY A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE END OF A COLD FRONT NEAR 32N44W TO 31N46W WITH THE TROUGH TO 28N59W SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC. POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OVER THE TROUGH AXIS. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS UNDER FAIR CONDITIONS TODAY. AN OUTBURST OF SAHARAN DUST EXTENDS FROM 9N-24N BETWEEN THE W COAST OF AFRICA TO 38W PRECEDING THE NEXT POSSIBLE TROPICAL WAVE GETTING READY TO EMERGE OFF THE AFRICAN COAST. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MONTALVO/HUFFMAN