000 AXNT20 KNHC 240555 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IN THE TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 13N42W TO 7N44W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. WAVE REMAINS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A SURGE OF DEEP LEVEL MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY WITH NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 74W/75W S OF 17N MOVING W NEAR 25 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP LEVEL MOISTURE AS DEPICTED BY THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM 20N TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA BETWEEN 68W-79W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA ALONG 17N13W THEN S INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 11N15W 6N19W TO 3N28W WHERE IT CONTINUES AS THE ITCZ AXIS ALONG 1N36W ALONG THE EQUATOR NEAR 43W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA BETWEEN 6N-11N. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE INLAND AND WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE COAST OF SW AFRICA BETWEEN 2W-7W AND FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 20W-27W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROADENING UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES AREA SW ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THEN ACROSS E/CENTRAL TEXAS TO N MEXICO WITH A RELAXING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE W GULF ANCHORED JUST N OF MEXICO CITY MEXICO EXTENDING AN AXIS NE ACROSS TUXPAN ACROSS THE GULF ALONG 26N90W TO OVER NE FLORIDA NEAR THE BIG BEND AREA. A WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH IS BENEATH THIS UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING AT 24/0300 UTC FROM 29N93W TO 27N95W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS W OF A LINE FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR PANAMA CITY ALONG 25N90W TO 21N95W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT IS OBSERVED OVER THE SE GULF ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. HOWEVER...ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM ACROSS FLORIDA BETWEEN TAMPA AND FORT MYERS TO THE W TIP CUBA. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE OVER BASIN THROUGH LATE SUN. CARIBBEAN SEA... A NARROWING UPPER TROUGH IN THE W ATLC EXTENDS ACROSS CUBA NEAR SANTA CLARA TO THE YUCATAN JUST N OF BELIZE GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF CUBA BETWEEN 78W AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS E/W FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC ACROSS THE S CARIBBEAN TO CENTRAL AMERICA. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 11N75W INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION OVER COSTA RICA NEAR 10N84W GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF 14N W OF 75W TO INLAND OVER PANAMA TO N NICARAGUA. SEE ABOVE FOR THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. TROPICAL WAVE WILL CROSS THE W CARIBBEAN TONIGHT THROUGH SAT MOVING INTO GULF OF MEXICO ON MON. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE ENTER THE W TROPICAL ATLC ON SUN AND INTO THE E CARIBBEAN ON TUE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD UPPER LOW COVERS THE W ATLC CENTERED NEAR 26N70W NARROWING AS IT ENTERS THE NW CARIBBEAN GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN 76W-80W. AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH 32N38W TO 26N43W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT N OF THE DISCUSSION AND A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N48W TO 28N57W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN 51W-67W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC DISCUSSION AREA SPLIT BY THE ABOVE FRONT/TROUGH WITH ONE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING OVER THE E ATLC THROUGH 32N29W TO 23N43W AND A SECOND RIDGE AXIS OVER THE W ATLC THROUGH 32N62W TO A WEAK 1019 MB HIGH NEAR 28N67W THEN W TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS IS GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC FAIR CONDITIONS AGAIN TONIGHT. AN E/W UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC ALONG 11W/12W ACROSS THE S CARIBBEAN. SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC WILL DRIFT N TO NEAR 30N LATE FRI THEN BECOME STATIONARY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW 000 AXNT20 KNHC 240555 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IN THE TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 13N42W TO 7N44W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. WAVE REMAINS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A SURGE OF DEEP LEVEL MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY WITH NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 74W/75W S OF 17N MOVING W NEAR 25 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP LEVEL MOISTURE AS DEPICTED BY THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM 20N TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA BETWEEN 68W-79W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA ALONG 17N13W THEN S INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 11N15W 6N19W TO 3N28W WHERE IT CONTINUES AS THE ITCZ AXIS ALONG 1N36W ALONG THE EQUATOR NEAR 43W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA BETWEEN 6N-11N. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE INLAND AND WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE COAST OF SW AFRICA BETWEEN 2W-7W AND FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 20W-27W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROADENING UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES AREA SW ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THEN ACROSS E/CENTRAL TEXAS TO N MEXICO WITH A RELAXING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE W GULF ANCHORED JUST N OF MEXICO CITY MEXICO EXTENDING AN AXIS NE ACROSS TUXPAN ACROSS THE GULF ALONG 26N90W TO OVER NE FLORIDA NEAR THE BIG BEND AREA. A WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH IS BENEATH THIS UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING AT 24/0300 UTC FROM 29N93W TO 27N95W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS W OF A LINE FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR PANAMA CITY ALONG 25N90W TO 21N95W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT IS OBSERVED OVER THE SE GULF ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. HOWEVER...ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM ACROSS FLORIDA BETWEEN TAMPA AND FORT MYERS TO THE W TIP CUBA. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE OVER BASIN THROUGH LATE SUN. CARIBBEAN SEA... A NARROWING UPPER TROUGH IN THE W ATLC EXTENDS ACROSS CUBA NEAR SANTA CLARA TO THE YUCATAN JUST N OF BELIZE GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF CUBA BETWEEN 78W AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS E/W FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC ACROSS THE S CARIBBEAN TO CENTRAL AMERICA. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 11N75W INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION OVER COSTA RICA NEAR 10N84W GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF 14N W OF 75W TO INLAND OVER PANAMA TO N NICARAGUA. SEE ABOVE FOR THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. TROPICAL WAVE WILL CROSS THE W CARIBBEAN TONIGHT THROUGH SAT MOVING INTO GULF OF MEXICO ON MON. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE ENTER THE W TROPICAL ATLC ON SUN AND INTO THE E CARIBBEAN ON TUE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD UPPER LOW COVERS THE W ATLC CENTERED NEAR 26N70W NARROWING AS IT ENTERS THE NW CARIBBEAN GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN 76W-80W. AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH 32N38W TO 26N43W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT N OF THE DISCUSSION AND A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N48W TO 28N57W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN 51W-67W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC DISCUSSION AREA SPLIT BY THE ABOVE FRONT/TROUGH WITH ONE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING OVER THE E ATLC THROUGH 32N29W TO 23N43W AND A SECOND RIDGE AXIS OVER THE W ATLC THROUGH 32N62W TO A WEAK 1019 MB HIGH NEAR 28N67W THEN W TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS IS GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC FAIR CONDITIONS AGAIN TONIGHT. AN E/W UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC ALONG 11W/12W ACROSS THE S CARIBBEAN. SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC WILL DRIFT N TO NEAR 30N LATE FRI THEN BECOME STATIONARY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW