000 AXNT20 KNHC 232342 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2330 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC WITH AXIS FROM 14N39W TO 6N40W MOVING W AT 20-25 KT. THE WAVE PRECEDES A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS. A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BASIN ANALYZED FROM 18N72W TO 11N74W MOVING W AT 20-25 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP LEVEL MOISTURE EVIDENT ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM JAMAICA TO 13N67W. THIS WAVE WILL REACH THE W CARIBBEAN TOMORROW...AND BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH IN THE SW CARIBBEAN TO PRODUCE A BROAD AREA OF CONVECTION IN THIS REGION INCLUDING INLAND PORTIONS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. A TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA AND ENTER THE E TROPICAL ATLC LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS WEST AFRICA...ENTERING THE EAST TROPICAL ATLC THROUGH THE COAST OF GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 11N15W TO 6N18W TO 4N25W...WHERE IT CONTINUES AS THE ITCZ AXIS TO 5N38W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN 18W-27W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ENTERING THE COASTAL WATERS OF LIBERIA...SIERRA LEONE...AND GUINEA. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE GULF THIS EVENING ...WITH DRY AIR ALOFT COVERING MOSTLY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE BASIN EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. UNDERNEATH THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE LIES A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 28N91W TO 21N95W. A RECENT ASCAT PASS SHOWED A SHARP CYCLONIC TURN ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS GUSTING TO 20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM EAST OF THE AXIS... AND UP TO THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COAST ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE AXIS. OTHERWISE...THE EASTERN HALF OF THE BASIN IS DOMINATED BY DRY AIR ALOFT AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE...KEEPING FAIR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE OUTSIDE THE CONVECTION AREA. S-SW FLOW IS OBSERVED E OF 90W. COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BASIN SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM JAMAICA TO 13N67W. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK W TONIGHT. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS NOTICED OVER THE FAR SW BASIN S OF 14N W OF 74W...DUE TO THE EXTENSION OF THE MONSOON TROUGH ANALYZED ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA OVER COSTA RICA TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF COLOMBIA. OTHERWISE... FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE OBSERVED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. MARINE OBS INDICATE TRADE WINDS 20-25 KT ACROSS THE AREA...GUSTING TO 30 KT ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE CONVECTION IN THE SW BASIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL REACH THE W CARIBBEAN TOMORROW...AND BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH TO PRODUCE A BROAD AREA OF CONVECTION IN THE SW CARIBBEAN AND NEAR-BY CENTRAL AMERICA COUNTRIES. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATE A SHARP UPPER TROUGH/LOW CENTERED NEAR 25N70W. THIS SYSTEM IS GENERATING AN AREA OF SCATTERED WEAK SHOWERS FROM 20N-26N BETWEEN 65W-71W. A 1020 MB HIGH IS N OF THIS AREA OF WEAK CONVECTION NEAR 28N67W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE N CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS OUR DISCUSSION AREA AS A SURFACE TROUGH NEAR 31N50W EXTENDING SW TO 28N58W. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS OBSERVED AT THE MOMENT. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC DISCUSSION AREA...ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH W OF PORTUGAL NEAR 40N18W. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA 000 AXNT20 KNHC 232342 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2330 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC WITH AXIS FROM 14N39W TO 6N40W MOVING W AT 20-25 KT. THE WAVE PRECEDES A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS. A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BASIN ANALYZED FROM 18N72W TO 11N74W MOVING W AT 20-25 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP LEVEL MOISTURE EVIDENT ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM JAMAICA TO 13N67W. THIS WAVE WILL REACH THE W CARIBBEAN TOMORROW...AND BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH IN THE SW CARIBBEAN TO PRODUCE A BROAD AREA OF CONVECTION IN THIS REGION INCLUDING INLAND PORTIONS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. A TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA AND ENTER THE E TROPICAL ATLC LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS WEST AFRICA...ENTERING THE EAST TROPICAL ATLC THROUGH THE COAST OF GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 11N15W TO 6N18W TO 4N25W...WHERE IT CONTINUES AS THE ITCZ AXIS TO 5N38W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN 18W-27W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ENTERING THE COASTAL WATERS OF LIBERIA...SIERRA LEONE...AND GUINEA. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE GULF THIS EVENING ...WITH DRY AIR ALOFT COVERING MOSTLY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE BASIN EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. UNDERNEATH THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE LIES A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 28N91W TO 21N95W. A RECENT ASCAT PASS SHOWED A SHARP CYCLONIC TURN ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS GUSTING TO 20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM EAST OF THE AXIS... AND UP TO THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COAST ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE AXIS. OTHERWISE...THE EASTERN HALF OF THE BASIN IS DOMINATED BY DRY AIR ALOFT AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE...KEEPING FAIR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE OUTSIDE THE CONVECTION AREA. S-SW FLOW IS OBSERVED E OF 90W. COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BASIN SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM JAMAICA TO 13N67W. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK W TONIGHT. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS NOTICED OVER THE FAR SW BASIN S OF 14N W OF 74W...DUE TO THE EXTENSION OF THE MONSOON TROUGH ANALYZED ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA OVER COSTA RICA TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF COLOMBIA. OTHERWISE... FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE OBSERVED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. MARINE OBS INDICATE TRADE WINDS 20-25 KT ACROSS THE AREA...GUSTING TO 30 KT ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE CONVECTION IN THE SW BASIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL REACH THE W CARIBBEAN TOMORROW...AND BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH TO PRODUCE A BROAD AREA OF CONVECTION IN THE SW CARIBBEAN AND NEAR-BY CENTRAL AMERICA COUNTRIES. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATE A SHARP UPPER TROUGH/LOW CENTERED NEAR 25N70W. THIS SYSTEM IS GENERATING AN AREA OF SCATTERED WEAK SHOWERS FROM 20N-26N BETWEEN 65W-71W. A 1020 MB HIGH IS N OF THIS AREA OF WEAK CONVECTION NEAR 28N67W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE N CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS OUR DISCUSSION AREA AS A SURFACE TROUGH NEAR 31N50W EXTENDING SW TO 28N58W. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS OBSERVED AT THE MOMENT. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC DISCUSSION AREA...ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH W OF PORTUGAL NEAR 40N18W. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA