000 AXNT20 KNHC 231047 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT THU JUN 23 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IN THE TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 14N33W TO 6N37W MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE REMAINS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A SURGE OF DEEP LEVEL MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120/150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 68W/69W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 25 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP LEVEL MOISTURE AS DEPICTED BY THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA ALONG 18N10W THEN S INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 11N15W TO 6N18W WHERE IT CONTINUES AS THE ITCZ AXIS ALONG 5N22W TO THE E SIDE OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 8N33W THEN CONTINUES W OF THE WAVE NEAR 9N40W INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 7N59W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 13W-17W INCLUDING THE COAST OF W AFRICA. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN 18W-27W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 48W-55W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A NARROW UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES AREA S ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THEN SW ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS TO NW MEXICO AMPLIFYING AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE W GULF ANCHORED NEAR MEXICO CITY MEXICO EXTENDING AN AXIS NE ALONG 25N94W TO INLAND OVER THE SE CONUS NEAR THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER. A SURFACE TROUGH IS BENEATH THIS UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING AT 23/0900 UTC FROM JUST W OF THE CHANDELEUR ISLANDS ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA ALONG 26N94W TO OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO TO NEAR 22N96W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS W OF THE SURFACE TROUGH TO INLAND OVER S LOUISIANA...TO THE COAST OF TEXAS...AND WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE TROUGH N OF 27N. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC TO OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA JUST N OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT IS OBSERVED OVER THE SE GULF ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. HOWEVER...ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WITHIN 120 NM OFF THE W FLORIDA COAST N OF THE FLORIDA KEYS INTO APALACHEE BAY. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE SE GULF UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AGAIN THIS MORNING. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE N OF THE AREA TODAY. AFTERWORDS...A SURFACE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE N PART OF THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE S PART OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY ILL PRECEDE A TROPICAL WAVE WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO MON. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE W ATLC EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 19N BETWEEN 79W-84W. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS E/W FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC ACROSS THE S CARIBBEAN TO CENTRAL AMERICA. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION OVER COSTA RICA NEAR 10N84W GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF 13N W OF 75W TO INLAND OVER PANAMA TO S NICARAGUA. SEE ABOVE FOR THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN. ISOLATED SHOWERS DOT THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN S OF 15N WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA N OF 15N IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. THE E CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TODAY REACHING THE W CARIBBEAN FRI WHERE ITS WESTWARD PROGRESS WILL SLOW THEN CONTINUE ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WEEKEND REACHING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SUN NIGHT. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO W TROPICAL ATLC EARLY SUN THEN MOVE INTO THE E CARIBBEAN MON. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDING THROUGH 32N63W ALONG 27N71W TO ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 21N-25N BETWEEN 68W-78W INCLUDING THE S BAHAMA ISLANDS AS WELL AS THE TURKS AND CAICOS. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT N OF THE DISCUSSION AND A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 32N53W TO 27N67W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC DISCUSSION AREA EXTENDING FROM THE E ATLC THROUGH 32N32W NARROWING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 25N48W CONTINUING S OF THE ABOVE SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE W ATLC TO OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA JUST N OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. THIS IS GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC FAIR CONDITIONS AGAIN THIS MORNING. AN E/W UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC ALONG 11W/12W ACROSS THE S CARIBBEAN. SURFACE RIDGE WILL DRIFT N TO 30N FRI NIGHT AND BECOME STATIONARY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW