000 AXNT20 KNHC 222346 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT WED JUN 22 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2330 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC WITH AXIS FROM 13N31W TO 6N32W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE PRECEDES A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. A RECENT ASCAT PASS OVER THE WAVE SHOWED A SHARP LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING ALONG THE AXIS. THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ FROM 6N-13N BETWEEN 30W-35W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BASIN ANALYZED FROM 14N61W TO 10N63W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP LEVEL MOISTURE EVIDENT ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF 70W S OF 15N INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS WEST AFRICA...ENTERING THE EAST TROPICAL ATLC THROUGH THE NORTHERN COAST OF GUINEA NEAR 11N15W TO 10N23W...WHERE IT CONTINUES AS THE ITCZ AXIS ALONG 11N30W 9N40W 7N50W TO 10N60W. A TROPICAL WAVE DISRUPTS THE FLOW ALONG 32W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 160 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ AXIS. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/CUT-OFF LOW MOVES ACROSS THE NNE CONUS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LONGWAVE EXTENDING SW FROM THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE NW GULF OF MEXICO...SUPPORTING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ANALYZED FROM THE WESTERN COAST OF LOUISIANA NEAR 29N92W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 25N97W. SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 70 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. OTHERWISE...A SHARP UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE BASIN THIS EVENING WITH VERY DRY AIR ALOFT AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE KEEPING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE OUTSIDE THE CONVECTION AREA IN THE NW BASIN. SURFACE RETURN FLOW UP TO 20 KT IS OBSERVED OVER THE ENTIRE BASIN E OF THE BOUNDARY. COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THE CONVECTION IN THE NW BASIN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE EAST CARIBBEAN BASIN SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS E OF 70W S OF 15N. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK W ACROSS THE CENTRAL BASIN TONIGHT. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS NOTICED OVER THE FAR SW BASIN S OF 13N W OF 73W...DUE TO AN EXTENSION OF THE MONSOON TROUGH ANALYZED ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA OVER COSTA RICA TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF COLOMBIA. OTHERWISE...FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. MARINE OBS INDICATE TRADE WIND FLOW 15-20 KT ACROSS THE AREA...GUSTING TO 25 KT ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. SHALLOW MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW IS PRODUCING ISOLATED WEAK SHOWERS. THE CONVECTION IN THE SW BASIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. ATLANTIC OCEAN... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATE A SHARP UPPER TROUGH WITH A WEAK UPPER LOW EMBEDDED NEAR 27N71W. THIS SYSTEM IS GENERATING AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS E OF THE BAHAMAS FROM 20N-28N BETWEEN 66W-72W. OTHERWISE...MOST OF THE ATLC WITHIN THE DISCUSSION AREA IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...ANCHORED BY A NEAR STATIONARY 1021 MB HIGH AROUND 26N53W. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA