000 AXNT20 KNHC 221039 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT WED JUN 22 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA WAS RELOCATED BASED ON LEVEL WINDS TO ALONG 29W/30W S OF 15N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE PRECEDES A SURGE OF DEEP LEVEL MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC WAS RELOCATED BASED ON UPPER LEVEL WINDS ALONG 56W/57W S OF 15N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP LEVEL MOISTURE AS DEPICTED BY THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 55W-62W TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA IS NO LONGER DISCERNIBLE AND WAS DROPPED FROM THE ANALYSIS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA ALONG 20N5W THEN S ALONG 17N13W INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 13N16W TO 10N19W WHERE IT CONTINUES AS THE ITCZ AXIS ALONG 9N27W 6N40W TO 6N52W WHERE A TROPICAL WAVE DISRUPTS THE FLOW. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 38W-53W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 19W-22W AND WITHIN 200 NM S OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 29W-38W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE E CONUS TO ALONG THE N GULF COAST SUPPORTING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT ARE BOTH INLAND OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE SW GULF ANCHORED ALONG THE SW COAST OF MEXICO WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING OVER TUXPAN MEXICO TO FLORIDA NEAR FORT MYERS GIVING THE SW GULF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF 25N W OF 93W TO INLAND OVER MEXICO. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA BETWEEN PALM BEACH AND FORT MYERS TO NEAR 26N90W. ALTHOUGH DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT IS OBSERVED ACROSS MOST OF THE GULF ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE A MOISTURE SURGE SPREADING ACROSS THE GULF AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE AREA W OF 86W LEAVING THE GULF E OF 86W UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. SURFACE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE FAR N GULF FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE W ATLC EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL/E CUBA INTO THE W CARIBBEAN TO NE HONDURAS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 17N BETWEEN 70W-78W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF JAMAICA. A SECOND UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS E/W FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC TO OVER THE E CARIBBEAN TO 70W. THE MONSOON TROF EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION OVER PANAMA/COSTA RICA NEAR 9N83W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF A LINE FROM NICARAGUA NEAR 14N84W TO COLOMBIA NEAR 9N76W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF PANAMA. THE TROPICAL WAVE E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 11N-12N E OF 66W ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. THE ABOVE MENTIONED TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO E CARIBBEAN TONIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THU NIGHT THEN WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE W CARIBBEAN FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDING THROUGH 32N69W TO ACROSS CENTRAL/E CUBA INTO THE W CARIBBEAN GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 24N TO OVER CUBA AND HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 70W-78W. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT ALONG THE N PERIPHERY OF THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 32N67W TO 31N73W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WELL REMOVED FROM THE FRONT WITHIN 30 NM OF LINE FROM 31N63W TO 29N68W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ENTIRE ATLC DISCUSSION AREA EXTENDING FROM THE E ATLC THROUGH 32N32W NARROWING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 26N51W CONTINUING ACROSS THE W ATLC INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR PALM BEACH FLORIDA. THIS IS GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC FAIR CONDITIONS AGAIN THIS MORNING. AN E/W UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC ALONG 11W/12W INTO THE E CARIBBEAN. SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT N TO NEAR 30N WHERE IT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW