000 AXNT20 KNHC 211057 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IN THE TROPICAL ATLC IS ANALYZED ALONG 46W/47W S OF 15N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ AND WITHIN A MOISTURE SURGE AS INDICATED BY THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY WITH NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IS INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA ALONG 69W/70W S OF 11N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WITH ANY CONVECTION INLAND OVER VENEZUELA. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA ALONG 22N10W THEN S ALONG 18N14W INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 15N17W TO 11N20W WHERE THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES ALONG 6N29W 6N38W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 4N52W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED/STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 26W-38W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH EMBEDDED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE AREA FROM 5N-12N E OF 20W BETWEEN 11W-20W INCLUDING THE COAST OF SW AFRICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 38W-44W AND FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 48W-55W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE GULF ANCHORED ALONG THE SW COAST OF MEXICO ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE BEATRIZ WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS TUXPAN TO ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR TAMPA. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS GIVING THE SW GULF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF A LINE FROM NE MEXICO NEAR 25N97W TO 22N93W. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS S FLORIDA BETWEEN FORT LAUDERDALE AND FORT MYERS TO NEAR 16N90W. DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE GULF ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. HOWEVER...THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES A MOISTURE SURGE SPREADING N ACROSS THE W GULF AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 25N87W TO OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N92W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE N GULF THROUGH TUE THEN BRIEFLY MOVE N OF THE AREA TUE NIGHT AND WED. THE RIDGE WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE N GULF WED NIGHT WHERE IT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SAT. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS ACROSS PUERTO RICO INTO THE CARIBBEAN TO NEAR 13N72W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120/150 NM OF LINE FROM THE GULF OF VENEZUELA TO THE MONA PASSAGE. A SECOND UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS E/W FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC TO OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THE MONSOON TROF EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 11N75W ALONG 10N80W ACROSS W PANAMA/COSTA RICA NEAR 9N83W INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF 12N TO INLAND OVER PANAMA BETWEEN 77W-82W. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE FAR W ATLC EXTENDS S TO OVER CUBA AND COUPLED WITH THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS INDICATED BY THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY ARE GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE N CARIBBEAN N OF 18N TO ACROSS CUBA BETWEEN 75W-84W INCLUDING THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL WAVE E OF THE AREA WILL MOVE INTO THE E CARIBBEAN EARLY THU ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EARLY FRI INTO THE W CARIBBEAN ON SAT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE FAR W ATLC EXTENDING THROUGH 32N74W TO OVER CUBA NEAR 21N78W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE TO THE E ALONG 20N72W TO 32N60W. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 25N TO OVER CUBA AND HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 70W-76W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH AN UPPER LOW NEAR 30N42W ALONG 23N56W INTO THE E CARIBBEAN ACROSS PUERTO RICO GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 20N TO OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO BETWEEN 63W67W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ENTIRE ATLC EXTENDING FROM A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 30N36W ALONG 25N48W NARROWING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND W ATLC INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR FORT LAUDERDALE FLORIDA. THIS IS GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC FAIR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. AN E/W UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC ALONG 10W/11W INTO THE E CARIBBEAN. SURFACE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SAT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW