000 AXNT20 KNHC 201136 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT MON JUN 20 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 38W TO THE SOUTH OF 10N. ANY NEARBY PRECIPITATION IS IN THE ITCZ. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 68W...FROM PUERTO RICO TO VENEZUELA. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 17N BETWEEN 59W AND 70W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. PRECIPITATION COVERS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE COMPARATIVELY STRONGEST RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE ISTHMUS. IT IS EASILY POSSIBLE THAT MOST OF THE TEHUANTEPEC PRECIPITATION IS RELATED TO TROPICAL STORM BEATRIZ IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. THE GUATEMALA THUNDERSTORMS OF SIX HOURS AGO APPEAR TO HAVE WEAKENED BECAUSE THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES IN THAT AREA HAVE BEEN WARMING WITH TIME. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE PRIME MERIDIAN ALONG 17N TO 16N5W 19N14W 8N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N20W TO 5N30W 8N39W...INTO NORTHWESTERN FRENCH GUIANA. MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE IN GUYANA. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W. ...DISCUSSION... FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 70W INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N74W...TO A FLORIDA STRAITS CYCLONIC CENTER THAT IS NEAR 24N81W...TO A THIRD CYCLONIC CENTER THAT IS JUST TO THE WEST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 20N92W...INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 72W INCLUDING IN THE BAHAMAS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 26N TO THE EAST OF 93W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THE COMPARATIVELY STRONGEST RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE SOUTHERN ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. IT IS EASILY POSSIBLE THAT MOST OF THE TEHUANTEPEC PRECIPITATION IS RELATED TO T.S. BEATRIZ IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. THE GUATEMALA THUNDERSTORMS OF SIX HOURS AGO APPEAR TO HAVE WEAKENED BECAUSE THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES IN THAT AREA HAVE BEEN WARMING WITH TIME. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N58W...ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND SOUTH FLORIDA TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...AND EVENTUALLY TOWARD THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES IN GUATEMALA HAVE BEEN WARMING DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS. THE EARLIER PRECIPITATION IS NOT AS STRONG AS IT WAS EARLIER...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME RAINSHOWERS REMAIN. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS COVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...NEAR THE MONSOON TROUGH. AN INVERTED TROUGH IS IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA ALONG 76W/77W TO THE SOUTH OF 14N. THE MONSOON TROUGH ALSO EXTENDS FROM COASTAL COLOMBIA NEAR THE INVERTED TROUGH TOWARD SOUTHERN NICARAGUA AND EVENTUALLY WESTERN GUATEMALA. MORE ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 68W...FROM PUERTO RICO TO VENEZUELA. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 17N BETWEEN 59W AND 70W. THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REACHES 16N68W...JUST TO THE SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 17N BETWEEN 66W AND 82W. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N47W TO 27N60W TO 22N66W TO 16N68W...JUST TO THE SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N44W TO 31N46W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM 31N46W TO 27N54W. CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE WITHIN 75 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N43W 29N50W 26N57W. ONE SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N58W...ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND SOUTH FLORIDA TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 25N43W. A SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS ALONG 34W/35W FROM 23N TO 30N IS MOVING THROUGH BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW THAT COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 20W AND 50W. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 26N31W. CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 27W AND 41W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT