000 AXNT20 KNHC 200547 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT MON JUN 20 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 12N34W 8N36W 4N37W. ANY NEARBY PRECIPITATION IS IN THE ITCZ. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17N66W...JUST TO THE SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO...13N67W...TO 8N68W IN VENEZUELA. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 14N BETWEEN 63W AND 70W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THREE CLUSTERS BETWEEN GUATEMALA AND THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE PRIME MERIDIAN ALONG 19N TO 20N6W 16N17W 9N22W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 9N22W TO 7N26W 8N36W 7N51W...TO THE SURINAME COAST NEAR 6N56W. NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER GUYANA AND SURINAME FROM 2N TO 5N BETWEEN 56W AND 59W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 7N TO 8N BETWEEN 38W AND 53W...AND FROM 5N TO 6N BETWEEN 32W AND 34W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE REST OF THE AREA FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W. ...DISCUSSION... FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 70W INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N76W...TO A SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO CYCLONIC CENTER THAT IS NEAR 25N83W...TO A THIRD CYCLONIC CENTER THAT IS JUST TO THE WEST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 20N92W...INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 72W INCLUDING IN THE BAHAMAS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 27N TO THE EAST OF 92W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THREE CLUSTERS BETWEEN GUATEMALA AND THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N72W...ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND SOUTH FLORIDA TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...AND EVENTUALLY TOWARD THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST/MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER GUATEMALA FROM 14N TO 16N BETWEEN 89W AND 91W. OTHER SIMILAR PRECIPITATION WAS COVERING CENTRAL AMERICA FROM WESTERN HONDURAS...EASTERN EL SALVADOR...AND WESTERN NICARAGUA SIX HOURS AGO. SOME OF THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED WITH TIME WITH THAT SITUATION. ALL THE CENTRAL AMERICA PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN OCCURRING IN THE MONSOON TROUGH. AN INVERTED TROUGH IS IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA ALONG 76W/77W TO THE SOUTH OF 14N. THE MONSOON TROUGH ALSO EXTENDS FROM COASTAL COLOMBIA NEAR THE INVERTED TROUGH TOWARD SOUTHERN NICARAGUA AND EVENTUALLY WESTERN GUATEMALA. MORE ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17N66W...JUST TO THE SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO...13N67W...TO 8N68W IN VENEZUELA. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 14N BETWEEN 63W AND 70W. THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REACHES 16N68W...JUST TO THE SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 17N BETWEEN 66W AND 78W. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N47W TO 27N60W TO 22N66W TO 16N68W...JUST TO THE SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N46W TO 31N48W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM 31N48W TO 28N55W. CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE WITHIN 75 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N44W 29N47W 27N53W. ONE SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N60W TO A 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N72W...ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND SOUTH FLORIDA TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 29N35W 23N33W. THIS TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE THAT GOES FROM A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N30W TO 29N42W 25N55W. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 27N31W. CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 27W AND 41W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT