000
AXNT20 KNHC 181106
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
805 AM EDT SAT JUN 18 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 15N22W 10N23W 5N23W
MOVING WESTWARD 15 KT. ANY NEARBY PRECIPITATION IS IN THE ITCZ.
 
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N51W 13N52W 8N53W
MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KT. SCATTERED STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 50W AND 57W...AND
FROM 10N TO 11N BETWEEN 60W AND 62W ACROSS TRINIDAD AND PARTS
OF NEARBY EXTREME NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM WESTERN CUBA TO 
CENTRAL NICARAGUA. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 13N TO 19N BETWEEN 
80W AND 85W...INCLUDING IN PARTS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 20N ALONG THE PRIME MERIDIAN 
TO 17N6W 15N21W. THE ITCZ IS ALONG 7N24W 2N42W...INTO EXTREME 
NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 2N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS
TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 5N TO 7N BETWEEN 20W
AND 32W...AND FROM EXTREME NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL INTO FRENCH
GUIANA FROM THE EQUATOR TO 3N BETWEEN 50W AND 55W. ISOLATED
MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N MOSTLY
BETWEEN 40W AND 58W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 65W INTO THE GULF OF 
MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW WITH A TROUGH STARTS TO REACH 30N
BETWEEN 65W AND 77W AS THAT SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 31N61W TO 27N72W...INTO THE 
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 24N84W TO MEXICO BETWEEN 
GUATEMALA AND THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. UPPER LEVEL 
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS EVERYWHERE ELSE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TO 
THE WEST OF 90W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 27N72W...ACROSS 
FLORIDA...INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...AND TOWARD
THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED 
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE REMAINING RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM ON 
EITHER SIDE OF 29N60W 25N70W 22N84W 16N89W...RANGING FROM THE 
ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS...
TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA/BELIZE/POSSIBLY GUATEMALA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM WESTERN CUBA TO 
CENTRAL NICARAGUA. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 13N TO 19N BETWEEN 
80W AND 85W...INCLUDING IN PARTS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS. 
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW ACCOMPANIES AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE 
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER...FROM PANAMA AND COSTA RICA TO NORTHERN 
NICARAGUA. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NORTHWESTERN 
VENEZUELA ALONG 70W TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. LOW CLOUDS AND 
POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE WITH THE TRADEWIND EASTERLY WIND FLOW 
THAT COVERS THE AREA TO THE EAST OF 75W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 33N50W TO 31N53W. A STATIONARY FRONT 
CONTINUES FROM 31N53W TO 28N64W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS 
ARE WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 27N57W BEYOND 32N50W.
A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT 
IS NEAR 37N25W THROUGH 32N35W TO 31N42W AND 25N61W. AN UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N35W TO 23N39W 16N47W.

F0R ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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MT