000
AXNT20 KNHC 180606
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
205 AM EDT SAT JUN 18 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 15N21W 5N24W MOVING
WESTWARD 15 KT. INTRODUCED OFF THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 
15N19W TO 5N22W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THIS WAVE HAS A NEW SURGE 
OF MOISTURE TOGETHER WITH AN INVERTED-V LOW CLOUD SIGNATURE AS 
DEPICTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
OVER THE OCEAN FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN 16W-26W.   

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 13N53W 8N55W...INTO 
WEST CENTRAL SURINAME...MOVING WESTWARD 20 KT. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 11N TO 
14N BETWEEN 48W AND 55W...AND FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 58W AND 
60W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TO 
THE SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA COASTAL WATERS. WIDELY SCATTERED TO 
SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS/ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS 
COVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE WEST OF 78W. 

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 20N ALONG THE PRIME MERIDIAN 
TO 18N1W 17N9W AND 16N17W. THE ITCZ IS ALONG 8N25W 3N43W...INTO
EXTREME NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL AND FRENCH GUIANA. SCATTERED 
MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 
7N TO 9N BETWEEN 17W AND 19W...FROM 5N TO 7N BETWEEN 25W AND 
30W. NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN EXTREME 
NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL FROM THE EQUATOR TO 4N BETWEEN 50W AND 53W
FROM BRAZIL INTO FRENCH GUIANA.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 65W INTO THE GULF OF 
MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 31N66W TO 26N75W TO GRAND BAHAMA 
ISLAND...INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS EVERYWHERE ELSE IN THE GULF OF 
MEXICO TO THE WEST OF 90W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 27N/28N FROM 
67W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS FLORIDA...INTO THE 
NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO 
LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM CUBA TO 26N BETWEEN 65W 
AND WESTERN CUBA...IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE EAST OF FLORIDA 
TO THE NORTH OF 29N TO THE WEST OF 79W...AND IN NORTHERN BELIZE 
AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS/ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE WEST OF 78W. 
THIS PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING NEAR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS-TO-
SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA COASTAL WATERS TROPICAL WAVE. CYCLONIC 
WIND FLOW ACCOMPANIES AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE SOUTHWESTERN 
CORNER...FROM PANAMA AND COSTA RICA TO NORTHERN NICARAGUA. 
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA 
ALONG 70W TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE 
PRECIPITATION ARE WITH THE TRADEWIND EASTERLY WIND FLOW THAT 
COVERS THE AREA TO THE EAST OF 75W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 34N50W TO 31N54W. A STATIONARY FRONT 
CONTINUES FROM 31N54W TO 27N60W AND 24N71W. ISOLATED MODERATE 
RAINSHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE 23N TO 25N 
BETWEEN 65W AND 72W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1022 MB HIGH 
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 36N62W TO 28N70W AND ALONG 27N/28N
ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS 
FROM A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 35N31W TO 
27N48W TO 23N62W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N40W TO 25N42W 18N56W TO 
16N60W.

F0R ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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MT