000 AXNT20 KNHC 180003 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT FRI JUN 17 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS INTRODUCED OFF THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 15N19W TO 5N22W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THIS WAVE HAS A NEW SURGE OF MOISTURE TOGETHER WITH AN INVERTED-V LOW CLOUD SIGNATURE AS DEPICTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE OCEAN FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN 16W-26W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA FROM 12N50W TO 3N354W MOVING W AT 20 KT. WAVE IS WELL DEFINED IN THE UPPER LEVEL SATELLITE WINDS. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE INLAND FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 51W-60W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE OCEAN FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 50W-60W. TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 17N81W TO 8N82W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THIS IS A WELL DEFINED WAVE WITH A LARGE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE FIELD. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 7N-20N BETWEEN 78W-89W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM INLAND AFRICA AT 20N00W TO 16N10W TO THE COAST AT 12N17W. THE ITCZ IS W OF THE TROPICAL WAVE FROM 8N23W TO 2N45W TO SOUTH AMERICA AT 3N51W. AN AREA OF NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER WEST AFRICA FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 12W-16W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 47W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1017 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO AT 28N86W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER OVER THE GULF. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...S ALABAMA...AND S GEORGIA FROM 30N-33N BETWEEN 83W-88W. 5-10 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS DOMINATES THE NE GULF. COMPOSITE RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER MOST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS OVER CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 20N89W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER N MEXICO NEAR 25N100W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE GULF EXCEPT OVER FLORIDA...CUBA...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. EXPECT ...MORE AIRMASS THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON OVER S FLORIDA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. ALSO EXPECT MORE THUNDERSTORMS OVER CUBA AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN SEA. SEE ABOVE. CONSIDERABLE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN...PANAMA...COSTA RICA...NICARAGUA...AND HONDURAS. FURTHER E...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA ...AND N VENEZUELA FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 60W-75W. ELSEWHERE...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER CUBA...JAMAICA ...AND HISPANIOLA. 10-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED N OF JAMAICA NEAR 19N78W. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA EXCEPT THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. EXPECT MORE CONVECTION OVER THE CARIBBEAN AS THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES W OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 32N54W 28N60W 25N70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1027 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 35N30W. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO 29N45W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 22N-27N BETWEEN 65W-75W. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE E DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION. F0R ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA