000 AXNT20 KNHC 171622 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1205 PM EDT FRI JUN 17 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N49W TO 04N52W MOVING W-NW AT 10-15 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED IN ITCZ WITH WELL DEFINED VORTICITY AT SURFACE NEVERTHELESS ITS SIGNATURE AT 700 MB REMAINS WEAKER. ABUNDANT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH WAVE PRODUCE SCATTERED CONVECTION WITHIN 240 NM E OF WAVE AXIS. TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS WESTERN CARIBBEAN S OF 16N ALONG 80W MOVES W-NW AT 10-15 KT. WAVE EMBEDDED IN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE UNDER MONSOONAL TROUGH. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM W AND 240 NM E OF WAVE AXIS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM INLAND GUINEA-BISSAU IN WEST AFRICA ...ENTERING ATLC FROM 11N16W SW TO 07N22W. ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES THEN TO 04N43W TO 08N50W TO 07N58W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION MOVES OUT OF COAST OF SIERRA LEONE...GUINEA ...AND NORTHERN LIBERIA E OF 24W FROM 3N-10N. SIMILAR CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM N OF ITCZ AXIS MERGES WITH AFOREMENTIONED TROPICAL WAVE. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS VERY DRY AIR DUE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT COVERING ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGHER PRESSURES OVER NE GULF BRINGS FLAT GRADIENT AND FAIR WEATHER WITH A MODERATE BREEZE ACROSS BASIN. SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER YUCATAN PENINSULA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTURE OUTFLOW FROM EAST PACIFIC TROPICAL FEATURES. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES EXPECTED DURING NEXT 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... TROPICAL WAVE COMBINES WITH MOIST WARM AIR MASS ASSOCIATED WITH MONSOON TROUGH PRODUCES SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION OVER SW CARIBBEAN WHILE ISOLATED TSTMS DOT THE NW PART OF BASIN. EASTERN CARIBBEAN REMAINS UNDER FAIR WEATHER FOR THE TIME BEING AS A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES TROPICAL ATLANTIC ZONE. SCATTERED TSTMS MOSTLY S OF 13N LIKELY TO DAMPEN SKIES E OF 60W THIS AFTERNOON...TONIGHT AND SAT. ANTI CYCLONIC OUT FLOW ALOFT FROM ANTICYCLONIC GYRE OVER NW COLOMBIA CONTRIBUTES IN MAINTAINING A DRY EASTERN CARIBBEAN. ISOLATED SHOWERS SE OF HISPANIOLA AND NE OF JAMAICA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS NW ATLC SUPPORTING COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW ALONG 31N55W TO 26N65W TO 26N70W CAUSING SCATTERED TSTMS WITHIN 90 NM ON E OF FRONT N OF 27N. HEALTHY RIDGE BUILDS BEHIND FRONT ACROSS BASIN ANCHORED BY 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER AT 36N65W. REMAINDER OF ATLC E OF FRONT DOMINATED BY BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY STRONG STATIONARY 1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED AT 35N31W. F0R ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALLY BARNES 000 AXNT20 KNHC 171622 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1205 PM EDT FRI JUN 17 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N49W TO 04N52W MOVING W-NW AT 10-15 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED IN ITCZ WITH WELL DEFINED VORTICITY AT SURFACE NEVERTHELESS ITS SIGNATURE AT 700 MB REMAINS WEAKER. ABUNDANT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH WAVE PRODUCE SCATTERED CONVECTION WITHIN 240 NM E OF WAVE AXIS. TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS WESTERN CARIBBEAN S OF 16N ALONG 80W MOVES W-NW AT 10-15 KT. WAVE EMBEDDED IN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE UNDER MONSOONAL TROUGH. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM W AND 240 NM E OF WAVE AXIS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM INLAND GUINEA-BISSAU IN WEST AFRICA ...ENTERING ATLC FROM 11N16W SW TO 07N22W. ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES THEN TO 04N43W TO 08N50W TO 07N58W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION MOVES OUT OF COAST OF SIERRA LEONE...GUINEA ...AND NORTHERN LIBERIA E OF 24W FROM 3N-10N. SIMILAR CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM N OF ITCZ AXIS MERGES WITH AFOREMENTIONED TROPICAL WAVE. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS VERY DRY AIR DUE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT COVERING ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGHER PRESSURES OVER NE GULF BRINGS FLAT GRADIENT AND FAIR WEATHER WITH A MODERATE BREEZE ACROSS BASIN. SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER YUCATAN PENINSULA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTURE OUTFLOW FROM EAST PACIFIC TROPICAL FEATURES. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES EXPECTED DURING NEXT 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... TROPICAL WAVE COMBINES WITH MOIST WARM AIR MASS ASSOCIATED WITH MONSOON TROUGH PRODUCES SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION OVER SW CARIBBEAN WHILE ISOLATED TSTMS DOT THE NW PART OF BASIN. EASTERN CARIBBEAN REMAINS UNDER FAIR WEATHER FOR THE TIME BEING AS A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES TROPICAL ATLANTIC ZONE. SCATTERED TSTMS MOSTLY S OF 13N LIKELY TO DAMPEN SKIES E OF 60W THIS AFTERNOON...TONIGHT AND SAT. ANTI CYCLONIC OUT FLOW ALOFT FROM ANTICYCLONIC GYRE OVER NW COLOMBIA CONTRIBUTES IN MAINTAINING A DRY EASTERN CARIBBEAN. ISOLATED SHOWERS SE OF HISPANIOLA AND NE OF JAMAICA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS NW ATLC SUPPORTING COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW ALONG 31N55W TO 26N65W TO 26N70W CAUSING SCATTERED TSTMS WITHIN 90 NM ON E OF FRONT N OF 27N. HEALTHY RIDGE BUILDS BEHIND FRONT ACROSS BASIN ANCHORED BY 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER AT 36N65W. REMAINDER OF ATLC E OF FRONT DOMINATED BY BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY STRONG STATIONARY 1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED AT 35N31W. F0R ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALLY BARNES