000 AXNT20 KNHC 161730 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N36W TO 5N40W MOVING NW NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS OBSERVED IN THE UPPER LEVEL SATELLITE WINDS AND IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOISTURE MAXIMUM AS INDICATED BY THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. AS WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AND THE CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ AND NOT THE WAVE ITSELF. CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 73W S OF 1N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOISTURE MAXIMUM AS INDICATED BY THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM 14N-19N BETWEEN 67W-73W INCLUDING HISPANIOLA AND THE MONA PASSAGE. W CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 84W S OF 17N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE IS MOVING INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOISTURE MAXIMUM AS INDICATED BY THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 17N TO INLAND OVER HONDURAS BETWEEN 83W-88W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA ALONG 20N12W DROPPING S ALONG 13N15W ENTERING THE E ATLC NEAR 10N14W TO 7N18W WHERE THERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 3N28W 3N36W RESUMING NEAR 7N42W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 5N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-11N E OF 19W TO JUST INLAND OVER W AFRICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE W OF THE TROPICAL WAVE FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 39W-46W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A WEAK UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR PENSACOLA INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG AND THE W COAST OF THE YUCATAN TO NEAR 19N92W SUPPORTING A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM TAMPA FLORIDA TO DESTIN FLORIDA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 29N BETWEEN 85W-89W. A WEAK NARROW SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS S OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH A 1018 MB HIGH JUST S OF JACKSONVILLE. DRY STABLE AIR CONTINUES TO DOMINATE MOST OF THE GULF LEAVING THE GULF UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE E GULF REMAINS UNDER A LAYER OF MODERATELY DENSE SMOKE N OF 24N E OF 85W ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AS INDICATED BY NOAA SSD FIRE DETECTION. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA MAINLY WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FLORIA KEYS. SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE N GULF THROUGH MON. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN SPREADING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE S/CENTRAL AND SW GULF OVER THE WEEKEND. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED IN THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 11N77W. IT APPEARS A SURFACE TROUGH IS AGAIN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM W COLOMBIA TO SE NICARAGUA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SW OF LINE FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 11N75W TO 13N82W TO INLAND OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER AND WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. SEE ABOVE FOR ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES. CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE TO NEAR JAMAICA BY FRI MORNING THEN THE FAR W CARIBBEAN BY SAT MORNING TO OVER CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE TROPICAL ATLC WILL ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN ON SUN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE TROUGH/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NEAR 31N77W TO THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR MELBOURNE MOVING RAPIDLY SSE AND GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90/120 NM NW OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE FAR W ATLC IS UNDER A LAYER OF MODERATELY DENSE SMOKE N OF 24N W OF 78W TO ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AS INDICATED BY NOAA SSD FIRE DETECTION. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC N OF 25N BETWEEN 58W-78W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC NEAR 32N62W TO 27N69W WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO 26N75W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM SE OF THE FRONT E OF 67W. A NARROW UPPER RIDGE IS TO THE E EXTENDING FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO BEYOND 32N50W PROVIDING A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVERING THE AREA FROM 24N-30N BETWEEN 55W-68W AND WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 23N62W ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO TO 17N65W. A NARROWING CENTRAL ATLC UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH 32N42W ALONG 18N50W INTO THE TROPICS TO NEAR 10N55W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF 65W AND ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH S OF THE AZORES AND N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. COLD FRONT WILL INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC TONIGHT. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL DEVELOP ALONG 28N FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN. F0R ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW