000 AXNT20 KNHC 160528 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT THU JUN 16 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N34W TO 2N40W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOISTURE MAXIMUM AS INDICATED BY THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THE CONVECTION IS MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE ITCZ FROM 1N-10N BETWEEN 34W-43W. TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN FROM 20N67W TO 10N70W MOVING WNW AT 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AND IS BEING PUSHED AHEAD OF TE UPPER TROUGH THAT REMAINS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS TO 61W. WITH THE STRONGEST CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS NEAR THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO N OF 16N E OF 69W. TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA ANALYZED FROM 17N82W TO 8N84W. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA OVER COSTA RICA INTO NORTHERN COLOMBIA. THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TI THIS WAVE IS MOSTLY INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AN THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN SEA. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS INLAND ACROSS WEST AFRICA. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS W FROM THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE ALONG 8N14W 6N25W 8N35W. THEN...IT RESUMES E OF A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 7N40W TO 3N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION MOVES OUT THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE AND GUINEA. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150/180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN W OF 34W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW DRY AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT COVERING THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS EVENING. AT SURFACE...A 1015 MB HIGH REMAINS CENTERED NEAR 25N85W. THIS BENIGN FEATURE IS PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA...WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED WEAK SHOWERS NOTICED OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND WESTERN WATERS OF CUBA ON VISIBLE NIGHT CHANNEL S OF 22N E OF 90W. A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED INLAND OVER N CENTRAL FLORIDA IS GENERATING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OFF-SHORE N OF TAMPA BAY TO NEAR 29N. OTHERWISE...A VERY RELAX PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OBSERVED ALMOST OVER THE ENTIRE BASIN...GENERATING 5-10 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ACROSS THE AREA...GUSTING TO 20 KT ACROSS THE TEXAS COAST. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE SURFACE RIDGE DRIFTS TO THE NE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE WEATHER IN THE SW CARIBBEAN IS INFLUENCED BY THE MONSOON TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA INTO NORTHERN COLOMBIA...AS WELL AS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO FEATURES IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 13N W OF 73W. OTHERWISE...UPPER LEVEL ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN SEA W OF 70W. THIS FEATURE IS SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THIS AREA. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO THE WAVE COVERS THE SEA E OF 70W...WITH THE STRONGEST CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS NEAR THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO N OF 16N E OF 69W. OTHERWISE...10 TO 25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. EXPECT MORE CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE SW AND SE CARIBBEAN BASIN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE EAST CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE W INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TODAY WITH SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE WEST ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW ALONG 32N64W 2771W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR 27N78W. THIS BOUNDARY IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 50 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY N OF 27N. IN THE MEAN TIME...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILD BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE NW ATLC BASIN. A NARROW UPPER RIDGE IS TO THE E OF THE FRONT PROVIDING A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT TO GENERATE AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 25N-31N BETWEEN 52W-58W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A STRONG 1029 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 35N28W. F0R ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA