000 AXNT20 KNHC 152316 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N32W TO 2N36W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. WAVE IS WELL DEFINED IN THE UPPER LEVEL SATELLITE WINDS. CONVECTION IS MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE ITCZ. CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN 30W-40W. TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN FROM 21N66W TO 9N65W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THIS IS A WELL DEFINED WAVE WITH A LARGE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE FIELD. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-22N BETWEEN 60W-67W. TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 17N77W TO 7N77W MOVING NW 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE IS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A SURGE COMING FROM THE ATLANTIC. THE SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS THE WAVE AMPLIFICATION OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-15N BETWEEN 74W-85W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM INLAND AFRICA AT 12N00W TO 13N10W TO THE COAST AT 12N16W TO 10N21W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 10N21W 9N30W TO 3N40W TO SOUTH AMERICA AT 2N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER INLAND AFRICA FROM 8N-14N BETWEEN 1W-14W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 16W-20W. CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN 30W-40W... AND FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 40W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1016 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE N GULF OF MEXICO AT 27N87W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER OVER THE GULF. 5-10 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS DOMINATES THE GULF N OF 23N. COMPOSITE RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND S MEXICO. THE NE GULF IS UNDER A LAYER OF MODERATELY DENSE SMOKE N OF A LINE FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS TO SE LOUISIANA NEAR ATCHAFALAYA BAY AS INDICATED BY NOAA SSD FIRE DETECTION. IN THE UPPER LEVELS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N88W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE GULF EXCEPT OVER THE SE GULF AND CUBA. EXPECT...CONTINUED SHOWERS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS OVER W CUBA...THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. CARIBBEAN SEA... TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SEE ABOVE. A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM PANAMA TO THE EASTERN PACIFIC ALONG 10N. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. FURTHER E...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA AND N VENEZUELA FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN 60W-77W. ELSEWHERE...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER CUBA...JAMAICA ...PUERTO RICO...AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER NICARAGUA...AND HONDURAS. 10-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED N OF PANAMA NEAR 13N81W. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA EXCEPT THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. EXPECT MORE CONVECTION OVER THE CARIBBEAN AS THE TROPICAL WAVES MOVE W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 32N66W 28N76W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1026 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 36N32W. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO 24N65W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N70W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THIS CENTERED IS PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN 53W-61W. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE E DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION. F0R ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA