000 AXNT20 KNHC 151735 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 9N32W TO 2N34W MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS WELL DEFINED IN THE UPPER LEVEL SATELLITE WINDS AND REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ AND NOT THE WAVE ITSELF. E CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 63W/64W S OF 17N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOISTURE MAXIMUM AS INDICATED BY THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AND IS BEING PUSHED AHEAD OF TE UPPER TROUGH THAT REMAINS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 60W-66W INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES. W/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W/76W S OF 17N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS MOVING INTO AN AREA OF BROAD LOW PRESSURE BUT REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF MODERATE DRY AIR. THUS...THERE IS NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS OR CONVECTION. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA ENTERING THE E ATLC NEAR 18N16W TO 10N18W WHERE THERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 9N25W 3N40W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 1N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-12N E OF 18W TO JUST INLAND OVER W AFRICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 26W-47W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A WEAK UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE S GULF EXTENDING FROM 24N87W TO THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN TO NEAR 19N91W SUPPORTING A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 23N92W TO INLAND OVER S MEXICO NEAR 18N92W. A WEAK NARROW SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA ANCHORED BY A 1015 MB HIGH NEAR 27N87W. DRY STABLE AIR CONTINUES TO DOMINATE MOST OF THE GULF LEAVING THE GULF UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE NE GULF IS UNDER A LAYER OF MODERATELY DENSE SMOKE N OF A LINE FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS TO SE LOUISIANA NEAR ATCHAFALAYA BAY AS INDICATED BY NOAA SSD FIRE DETECTION. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FAR SE GULF S OF 24N BETWEEN 81W-87W. SURFACE RIDGE WILL DRIFT SE THROUGH THU AFTERNOON THEN REBUILD ALONG 28N THROUGH SUN. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED IN THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 10N78W. MODERATELY DRY STABLE AIR DOMINATES THE AREA FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 68W-77W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM PANAMA NEAR 9N79W TO CENTRAL NICARAGUA NEAR 13N84W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SW OF LINE FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 9N76W TO 14N80W TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING SHOWERS ACTIVITY FOR THE LESSER ANTILLES THIS AFTERNOON...SEE ABOVE. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. THE W/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL SLOW DOWN TONIGHT THEN MOVE INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. THE E CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL REACH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY THU AND INTO THE W CARIBBEAN FRI NIGHT AND SAT BEFORE MOVING INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA SUN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC N OF 25N W OF 62W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS ALONG THE N PERIPHERY OF THE DISCUSSION AREA ACROSS BERMUDA TO 31N69W WHERE IT BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY TO A 1011 MB LOW ALONG THE COAST OF GEORGIA NEAR 31N82W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS TO THE S EXTENDING FROM 30N77W TO OVER NE FLORIDA TO NEAR TALLAHASSEE. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 27N-32N BETWEEN 65W-75W. A NARROW UPPER RIDGE IS TO THE E EXTENDING FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO BEYOND 32N54W PROVIDING A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 250 NM OF LINE FROM 22N65W TO 31N54W. A NARROWING CENTRAL ATLC UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH 32N43W ALONG 22N48W INTO THE TROPICS TO NEAR 12N52W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF 60W AND ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH AND A 1026 MB HIGH N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. W ATLC FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WEAKEN INTO A FRONTAL TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS IT SLOWLY DRIFTS S REACHING FROM NEAR 31N67W TO THE NW BAHAMAS BY THU MORNING. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL DEVELOP ALONG 29N FRI AND SLIDE SLIGHTLY S ON SAT AND SUN. F0R ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW