000 AXNT20 KNHC 151201 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT WED JUN 15 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N27W TO 1N31W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. WAVE IS AHEAD OF A V-STRUCTURE CLOUD PATTERN NOTICED ON INFRA RED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE CONVECTION IS MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE ITCZ FROM 3N-9N BETWEEN 26W-36W. TROPICAL WAVE IS WEST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 18N62W TO 8N64W MOVING WNW AT 10-15 KT. THIS IS A WELL DEFINED WAVE ON VISIBLE NIGHT CHANNEL IMAGERY. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 19N BETWEEN 60W-65W. TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL/SW CARIBBEAN FROM 15N74W ACROSS THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA TO 8N76W MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS AN AREA OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...LIMITING CONVECTION ONLY TO THE SW BASIN S OF 13N W OF 75W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS GUINEA-BISSAU IN WEST AFRICA ALONG 12N16W...QUICKLY BECOMING ITCZ AXIS EXTENDING SW TO 8N26W. THEN...IT RESUMES E OF A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 5N32W 3N40W 1N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150/200 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 22W-45W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO COVER THE GULF THIS MORNING WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT NOTICED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY... SUPPORTING A 1015 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 26N87W. THIS BENIGN FEATURE IS PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA ...WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED WEAK SHOWERS NOTICED OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND WESTERN WATERS OF CUBA ON VISIBLE NIGHT CHANNEL S OF 23N E OF 90W. OTHERWISE...A VERY RELAX PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OBSERVED ALMOST OVER THE ENTIRE BASIN...GENERATING 5-15 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ACROSS THE AREA...GUSTING TO 20 KT ACROSS THE TEXAS COAST. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THU...THEN SHIFTING TO OVER THE N GULF FRI AND SAT. CARIBBEAN SEA... A UPPER LEVEL ANTI-CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN SEA THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE IS SUPPRESSING ALL CONVECTION ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA AND LEAVING THE BASIN ALMOST CLEAR OF ANY WEATHER...EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SW BASIN. THE WEATHER IN THIS REGION IS INFLUENCED BY A BROAD 1008 MB LOW OFF THE WESTERN COAST OF COSTA RICA IN THE PACIFIC OCEAN...EMBEDDED IN A MONSOON TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA INTO NORTHERN COLOMBIA...AND A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OFF THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 13N W OF 75W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED W OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO THE WAVE IS NOW MOVING ACROSS THIS GROUP OF ISLANDS E OF 65W...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NE INTO PUERTO RICO OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. OTHERWISE... 10 TO 25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. EXPECT MORE CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE SW AND SE CARIBBEAN BASIN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE W INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TONIGHT THEN W CARIBBEAN THU AND FRI. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC WILL ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN WED NIGHT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE WEST ATLC SUPPORTING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS WEST PARALLEL TO 32N W OF 67W AS A STATIONARY FRONT INTO THE COAST OF GEORGIA. THIS BOUNDARY IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC CONTINUES TO NARROW AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC... GENERATING AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 22N-30N BETWEEN 53W-65W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 36N38W AND A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 35N20W. F0R ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA