000 AXNT20 KNHC 141757 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT TUE JUN 14 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N22W TO 2N25W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. WAVE IS WELL DEFINED IN THE UPPER LEVEL SATELLITE WINDS AND REMAINS CAUGHT BETWEEN THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN 20W-26W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 14N53W TO 6N55W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOISTURE MAXIMUM AS INDICATED BY THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AND AT THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH WITH THE NEARBY CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND NOT THE WAVE ITSELF. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N65W INLAND OVER VENEZUELA TO 9N67W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS WELL DEFINED IN THE UPPER LEVEL SATELLITE WINDS BUT HAS LOST THE WELL DEFINED SATELLITE SIGNATURE THAT IT HAD 24 HOURS AGO BEFORE IT ENTERED THE DRY AIR OF THE CARIBBEAN. THUS...DUE TO THE DRY AIR THERE IS NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS OR CONVECTION. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA ENTERING THE E ATLC NEAR 18N16W TO 9N20W WHERE THERE IS A BREAK ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 6N27W ALONG 4N33W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 4N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 16W-20W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A WEAK UPPER LOW REMAINS NEAR 23N91W EXTENDING SW INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND S MEXICO NEAR THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT AT 14/1500 UTC EXTENDS FROM 22N94W TO S MEXICO NEAR 18N93W AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM W OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A NARROW SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 26N87W. DRY STABLE AIR CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE W GULF MAINLY W OF 90W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE FAR N GULF IS UNDER A LAYER OF DENSE SMOKE N OF A LINE FROM TAMPA FLORIDA TO THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA AS INDICATED BY NOAA SSD FIRE DETECTION. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SE GULF S OF 25N E OF 90W. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THU THEN SHIFTING TO OVER THE N GULF FRI AND SAT. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED IN THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR 11N79W. DRY STABLE AIR DOMINATES THE AREA FROM 11N-17N BETWEEN 63W-80W. A WEAK 1007 MB SURFACE LOW IS ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA NEAR 10N80W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING TO SE NICARAGUA NEAR 11N84W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AND SURROUNDING THE LOW. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES DUE TO AN UPPER TROUGH JUST E OF THE ISLANDS. THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE W INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TONIGHT THEN W CARIBBEAN THU AND FRI. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC WILL ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN WED NIGHT THEN CENTRAL AND W CARIBBEAN THU THROUGH SAT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC N OF 27N BETWEEN 60W-78W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH THAT AT 14/1500 UTC EXTENDS FROM 32N71W TO 19N79W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 90 NM SE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS TO THE E EXTENDING THROUGH 32N62W TO 28N63W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 26N71W TO 31N57W. AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC CONTINUES TO NARROW AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC WITH UPPER RIDGE AXIS FROM 20N62W TO BEYOND 32N54W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150 NM OF LINE FROM 20N68W TO 26N57W. THE CENTRAL ATLC UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH 32N40W SW ALONG 25N47W INTO THE TROPICS TO NEAR 12N56W. EMBEDDED WITHIN THE AREA OF THE UPPER RIDGE/TROUGH IS A WEAK 1016 MB LOW NEAR 29N59W MOVING NORTHWARD. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE AT THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH COVERING THE AREA FROM 7N-15N BETWEEN 50W-60W AND ARE MOVING OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES INTO THE E CARIBBEAN. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF 55W SPLIT BY A COLD FRONT THAT IS N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AND A 1024 MB HIGH W OF THE FRONT NEAR 34N44W AND A 1025 MB HIGH E OF THE FRONT NEAR 33N26W. THE SURFACE RIDGE NARROWS BEYOND 55W ALONG 23N/24N INTO THE S GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THE W ATLC SURFACE TROUGH WILL REACH FROM 31N71W TO JUST N OF GRAND BAHAMA WED MORNING THEN FROM BERMUDA TO 27N73W THU MORNING THEN INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC BY FRI MORNING. MEANWHILE THE NARROW W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT RETREAT OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC BY THU. A NEW SURFACE RIDGE WILL DEVELOP ALONG 29N FRI INTO SAT. F0R ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW