000 AXNT20 KNHC 141050 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT TUE JUN 14 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E TROPICAL ATLC ANALYZED FROM 14N20W TO 3N23W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE AXIS IS AHEAD OF A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE MOVING OFF WEST AFRICA. FOR NOW...THE WAVES IS CAUGHT IN BETWEEN THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 70 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS. TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS OF GUYANA... SURINAME...AND FRENCH GUIANA...ANALYZED FROM 14N50W TO 5N56W MOVING WNW AT 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THE WAVE IS FOUND W OF THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF THE ITCZ...GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION OVER A BROAD AREA W OF 45W FROM 6N-13N. TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA EXTENDING FROM 18N61W TO 10N70W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE IS MOVING OVER AN AREA OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...LIMITING CONVECTION ONLY TO THE NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLAND FROM 13N-17N W OF 58W TO THE WAVE AXIS. THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SENEGAL OVER WEST AFRICA ALONG 14N16W INTO THE ATLC NEAR 12N18W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES E OF A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 6N26W 4N35W 6N43W TO 8N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS MOVING OFF THE COAST OF GUINEA AND SIERRA LEONE E OF 16W FROM 6N-11N. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 50 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 26W-45W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE GULF THIS MORNING WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT NOTICED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...SUPPORTING A 1015 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 26N87W. THIS BENIGN FEATURE IS PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA...ONLY A FEW ISOLATED WEAK SHOWERS ARE NOTICED ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS...OFF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ON VISIBLE NIGHT CHANNEL. OTHERWISE...A VERY LOOSE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OBSERVED ALMOST OVER THE ENTIRE BASIN... GENERATING 5-10 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS. OTHER THAN A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL GULF AND BAY OF CAMPECHE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. CARIBBEAN SEA... A STRONG UPPER LEVEL ANTI-CYCLONIC CIRCULATION COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE IS SUPPRESSING ALL CONVECTION ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA AND LEAVING THE BASIN ALMOST CLEAR OF ANY WEATHER...EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SW BASIN... WHERE A 1008 MB LOW WOBBLES OFF THE COAST OF PANAMA NEAR 10N80W. THIS FEATURE IS EMBEDDED IN A MONSOON TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHERN COLOMBIA INTO CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN ALONG 10N...GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 100 NM ACROSS THE COAST OF COLOMBIA... PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND SOUTHERN NICARAGUA S OF 13N W OF 76W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...W OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. HOWEVER...THE CONVECTION GENERATED BY THE WAVE REMAINS TO THE NE OUT OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. 10-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. EXPECT MORE CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE SW AND SE CARIBBEAN BASIN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NW ATLC SUPPORTING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR 36N63W...HOWEVER THE TAIL END OF A SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED TO THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ENTERS OUR AREA ALONG 32N65W TO 28N66W...GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 150 NM AHEAD OF IT. THE TAIL END OF THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE E WITH CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TO THE ESE OF THIS FEATURE...A DISSIPATING 1016 MB LOW SPINS NEAR 28N60W WITHOUT ANY CONVECTION. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A NEARLY STATIONARY 1024 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 32N26W AND A ANOTHER 1024 MB HIGH NEAR 36N16W. F0R ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA