000 AXNT20 KNHC 140552 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT TUE JUN 14 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E TROPICAL ATLC ANALYZED FROM 14N20W TO 3N23W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE AXIS IS AHEAD OF A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE MOVING OFF WEST AFRICA. FOR NOW...THE WAVES IS CAUGHT IN BETWEEN THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 70 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS. TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS OF GUYANA... SURINAME...AND FRENCH GUIANA...ANALYZED FROM 13N52W TO 4N56W MOVING WNW AT 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THE WAVE OF FOUND W OF THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF THE ITCZ...GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION OVER A BROAD AREA W OF 45W FROM 6N-13N. TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA EXTENDING FROM 17N61W TO 10N65W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE IS MOVING OVER AN AREA OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...LIMITING CONVECTION ONLY TO THE NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLAND FROM 13N-17N W OF 58W TO THE WAVE AXIS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SENEGAL OVER WEST AFRICA ALONG 14N16W INTO THE ATLC NEAR 8N18W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES E OF A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 4N26W 5N40W TO 8N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS MOVING OFF THE COAST OF GUINEA AND SIERRA LEONE E OF 16W FROM 6N-11N. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 50 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 26W-45W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE GULF THIS EVENING WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT NOTICED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...SUPPORTING A 1018 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 27N86W. THIS BENIGN FEATURE IS PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA...ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTICED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ON VISIBLE NIGHT CHANNEL. OTHERWISE...A VERY LOOSE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OBSERVED ALMOST OVER THE ENTIRE BASIN... GENERATING 5-10 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS. OTHER THAN A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL GULF AND BAY OF CAMPECHE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. CARIBBEAN SEA... A STRONG UPPER LEVEL ANTI-CYCLONIC CIRCULATION COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA THIS EVENING. THIS FEATURE IS SUPPRESSING ALL CONVECTION ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA AND LEAVING THE BASIN ALMOST CLEAR OF ANY WEATHER...EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SW BASIN... WHERE A 1008 MB LOW WOBBLES OFF THE COAST OF PANAMA NEAR 10N80W. THIS FEATURE IS EMBEDDED IN A MONSOON TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHERN COLOMBIA INTO CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN ALONG 10N...GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 100 NM ACROSS THE COAST OF COLOMBIA... PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND SOUTHERN NICARAGUA S OF 13N W OF 75W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...W OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. HOWEVER...THE CONVECTION GENERATED BY THE WAVE REMAINS TO THE NE OUT OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. 10-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. EXPECT MORE CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE SW AND SE CARIBBEAN BASIN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NW ATLC SUPPORTING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR 37N64W...HOWEVER THE TAIL END OF A SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED TO THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ENTERS OUR AREA ALONG 32N65W TO 28N66W...GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 150 NM AHEAD OF IT. THE TAIL END OF THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE E WITH CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TO THE ESE OF THIS FEATURE...A DISSIPATING 1016 MB LOW SPINS NEAR 27N60W WITHOUT ANY CONVECTION. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A NEARLY STATIONARY 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 32N28W. F0R ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA