000 AXNT20 KNHC 130557 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT MON JUN 13 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 9N43W 6N45W 2N46W MOVING WESTWARD 10 KT. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 3N TO 10N BETWEEN 39W AND 55W. IT IS NOT EASY TO KNOW EXACTLY WHICH PRECIPITATION IS RELATED TO THE WAVE AND WHAT IS JUST WITH THE ITCZ. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N51W 13N55W 8N58W MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 360 NM TO THE EAST OF THE WAVE. A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN EASTERN NICARAGUA MOVING WESTWARD 10 KT. THE WAVE CORRESPONDS WITH A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM THAT HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE LAST FEW DAYS. RAINSHOWERS HAVE BEEN MOVING ACROSS NICARAGUA DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE COASTS FROM SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA TO PANAMA ALONG 81W ARE OCCURRING IN AN AREA OF A SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL TROUGH WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW ABOVE IT. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE PRIME MERIDIAN ALONG 17W TO 15N10W 13N17W AND 7N25W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N25W TO 6N33W 4N38W 4N43W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 3N TO 10N BETWEEN 39W AND 55W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 5N TO 7N BETWEEN 18W AND 20W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 3N TO 8N BETWEEN 13W AND 20W. ...DISCUSSION... FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 70W INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS NEAR 32N74W 27N80W WITH A TROUGH...AND ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 25N85W. A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 33N70W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 31N68W 29N69W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 29N71W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 29N TO 30N BETWEEN 68W AND 69W. RESULTANT BROAD UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...FROM JUST TO THE EAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ACROSS CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS BEYOND 31N72W. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW ALSO COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG A 27N91W 26N94W 18N91W TROUGH. EARLIER RAINSHOWERS THAT WERE IN MEXICO TO THE EAST OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC...GUATEMALA... EL SALVADOR...AND HONDURAS HAVE WEAKENED AS THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES IN THAT PART OF CENTRAL AMERICA HAVE WARMED. BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE COVERS THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. A 1015 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 27N87W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT IS HELPING TO KEEP CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTHWEST OF 23N80W 18N85W 16N88W...TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT GOES FROM CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH EASTERN NICARAGUA WITH ACCOMPANYING RAINSHOWERS. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE COASTS FROM SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA TO PANAMA ALONG 81W ARE OCCURRING IN AN AREA OF A SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL TROUGH WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW ABOVE IT. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH TRADEWIND LOW LEVEL CLOUDS THAT ARE TO THE EAST OF 75W. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 30N64W 26N66W 22N67W 19N70W REACHING THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 31N43W 26N46W 20N53W 12N55W. A 1017 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 23N58W. RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 28N42W 25N50W 23N55W...AND WITHIN 30 TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 23N55W 19N60W. F0R ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT