000 AXNT20 KNHC 121743 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SUN JUN 12 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1700 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W S OF 10N MOVING W AT 10 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS LOW AMPLITUDE...BUT CAN BE DETECTED IN MODEL ANALYSES. CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO THE ITCZ REGION WITH ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 5N-8N WITHIN 150 NM. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 16N49W TO 6N53W MOVING WNW 15 KT. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A CLASSIC INVERTED-V STRUCTURE IN THE CLOUD PATTERN. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS THAT THE WAVE LIES W OF A RIDGE OF ENHANCED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 52W-55W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 81W S OF 12N MOVING W AT 10 KT. THE WAVE CORRESPONDS WITH A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM THAT IS MOVING W ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. A LARGE CLUSTER OF STRONG CONVECTION IS NW OF THE WAVE ACROSS COSTA RICA/NICARAGUA FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 82W-86W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA FROM THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 17N ALONG 15N6W 15N13W ACROSS GUINEA TO 8N17W 6N25W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 6N25W ALONG 5N39W 7N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 30W-37W...AND WITHIN 250 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 43W-47W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A 1015 MB HIGH S OF MOBILE ALABAMA NEAR 28N88W DOMINATES THE GULF OF MEXICO TODAY. THIS IS PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT ANTI-CYCLONIC WINDS BASIN-WIDE. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN TO THE SW ATLC. ALOFT...SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE COVER THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA AROUND THE WRN AND SRN EDGES OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM NRN FLORIDA TO THE ERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN FROM WRN CUBA NEAR 23N84W TO BELIZE NEAR 17N89W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS MAINLY CONCENTRATED OVER BELIZE AND CUBA. A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG 81W IS SUPPORTING A LARGE CLUSTER OF STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 82W-86W. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER CLEAR SKIES DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND THE SRN HALF OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED S OF HISPANIOLA. EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE ACROSS MUCH OF THE ERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. EXPECT THE SURFACE TROUGH TO GRADUALLY DRIFT NW OUT OF THE BASIN. THE TROPICAL WAVE SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE TO MOVE W OUT OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE NW ATLC SUPPORTS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. A 1013 MB SURFACE LOW IS NEAR 31N73W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW TO A SECOND 1012 MB SURFACE LOW JUST NO OF THE WRN BAHAMAS NEAR 27N77W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM THIS LOW CLIPPING THE SE EDGE OF FLORIDA AND THE KEYS TO FAR WRN CUBA. CURRENTLY POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS WITH STRONGER ACTIVITY WELL E OF THE TROUGH N OF 23N BETWEEN 64W-69W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 70W BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND A SECOND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 50W. THIS UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS A WEAK 1016 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 23N57W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING E FROM THE LOW CENTER ALONG 23N51W 26N45W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS E OF 52W. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS DOMINATED BY SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A PAIR OF HIGHS WITH THE STRONGEST OF THE TWO BEING A 1024 HIGH NEAR 31N26W. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 12N36W WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE NE BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 24N25W FOLLOWED BY A SECOND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED N OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 32N15W. F0R ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON