000
AXNT20 KNHC 100605
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
205 AM EDT FRI JUN 10 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 11N32W 4N34W...
MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS
ARE IN THE ITCZ.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE PRIME MERIDIAN ALONG 16N 
TO 16N14W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 6N16W 4N24W 6N30W 6N35W 
6N50W 8N57W. NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM 7N TO 9N BETWEEN 55W AND 58W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
4N TO 7N BETWEEN 40W AND 49W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS
TO POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N BETWEEN 
10W AND 40W.  

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF OF 
MEXICO...THANKS TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 
27N85W. THIS CENTER HAS BEEN SHIFTING NORTHEASTWARD GRADUALLY 
DURING THE LAST FEW DAYS. A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 31N80W IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...TO THE 
MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS
THE REST OF THE AREA ALSO. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE
IN THE WESTERN GULF COASTAL WATERS TO THE SOUTH OF 29N TO THE
EAST OF 85W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 65W
INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 20N81W...ABOUT 130 NM
TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CUBA. NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER CUBA AND SURROUNDING WATERS FROM 20N
TO JUST TO THE SOUTH OF ANDROS ISLAND BETWEEN 77W AND 80W. 
NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO ARE ON TOP
OF THE BAHAMAS THAT INCLUDE THE EXUMA CAYS...TEDMAN'S CAY...
AND CAT ISLAND. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 18N85W IN THE 
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE 20N81W LOW 
CENTER...ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS...TO 25N73W IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE 
IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 65W. ISOLATED MODERATE 
RAINSHOWERS STILL REMAIN ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA 
TO THE NORTH OF 18N70W 12N63W 16N60W. THE SURFACE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT THAT IS ACROSS THE AREA IS COMPARATIVELY FLAT.
 
THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N47W TO 24N54W TO 20N56W.
A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N44W TO 26N50W TO A 1014 MB
LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 22N59W...TO 20N61W AND 19N65W.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N41W 25N47W 20N58W 19N65W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND
FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE EAST OF THE 32N44W 19N65W
SURFACE TROUGH.

F0R ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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MT