000 AXNT20 KNHC 082348 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT WED JUN 08 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS JUST OFF THE W AFRICA COAST EXTENDING FROM 16N22W TO 6N28W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE IS JUST AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFIED MOISTURE MAXIMUM EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. COMPUTER MODEL DATA ALSO SHOWS THE WAVE ALIGNS WELL WITH A MID-LEVEL RELATIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM THAT CAN BE TRACKED ACROSS THE ATLC IN THE FORECAST. CURRENTLY NO DEEP CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE PRIME MERIDIAN NEAR 14N ALONG 15N12W ACROSS GUINEA TO NEAR 8N20W 6N32W. ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 6N32W TO 2N48W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-11N BETWEEN 12W-20W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FLARED UP ACROSS THE N CENTRAL GULF COAST N OF 29N BETWEEN 86W-92W ACROSS ALABAMA...MISSISSIPPI...AND LOUISIANA...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF 29N. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO BEGINNING TO PUSH N FROM THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES INFLUENCED BY WEAK SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC...AND MODERATE DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF NEAR 29N85W WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. WINDS AND PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE CARIBBEAN MOVES N. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CENTRAL AND WRN CARIBBEAN DUE TO FLOW AROUND THE MONSOONAL TROUGH AND A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 19N82W. MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS NE OF THE LOW CENTER NEAR A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS THE SE BAHAMAS AND ERN CUBA TO GRAND CAYMAN. NUMEROUS SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 17N BETWEEN 73W-81W MAINLY IMPACTING ERN CUBA. WITH THE CONTINUED HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE NRN CARIBBEAN THE THREAT OF FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES REMAINS ACROSS JAMAICA...CUBA...HISPANIOLA...AND PUERTO RICO. POSSIBLE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 17N E OF 73W. SOME OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ALSO INFLUENCED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR 14N82W. MODERATE DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND THE S SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE IS SUPPORTING FAIR CONDITIONS S OF 16N ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE NRN CARIBBEAN...ESPECIALLY THE NW PORTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS N. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE AROUND A 1020 MB HIGH IS OVER THE WRN ATLC PROVIDING FAIR CONDITIONS N OF 25N W OF 60W SUPPORTING BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER...A DEEP LAYER TROUGH TO THE E IS SUPPORTING A SERIES OF SURFACE TROUGHS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF PRECIPITATION. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR 23N69W ACROSS THE SE BAHAMAS TO ERN CUBA NEAR 21N76W ENHANCING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS S OF 24N BETWEEN 72W-79W. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY IS ENHANCED BY DIFFLUENCE ALOFT BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE CARIBBEAN. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 31N52W 26N57W THROUGH A 1012 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 22N64W TO THE VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 18N65W. NUMEROUS SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE E OF THE SYSTEM FROM 17N-23N BETWEEN 56W-63W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 350 NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS N OF 23N. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS DOMINATED BY SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM A 1026 MB HIGH S OF THE AZORES ISLANDS. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES TO W OF THE AZORES. A NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SANDWICHED BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FARTHER E CENTERED BETWEEN THE COAST OF AFRICA AND THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON