000
AXNT20 KNHC 081746
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
205 PM EDT WED JUN 08 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1730 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS GUINEA IN WEST AFRICA... 
ENTERING THE EAST ATLC NEAR 9N13W TO 7N22W TO 6N33W...WHERE THE 
ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG TO 1N45W. A BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE COASTAL WATERS OF WEST 
AFRICA FROM 1N-11N E OF 20W. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED WEAK 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 70 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH 
AND ITCZ W OF 20W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS 
AFTERNOON. AT SURFACE...A VERY BROAD PRESSURE GRADIENT IS 
OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA WITH ESE 5-15 KT WINDS TURNING S ALONG 
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE N CENTRAL BASIN...ANALYZED FROM 
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI NEAR 31N89W ACROSS FAR SE LOUISIANA AND 
INTO THE GULF TO NEAR 27N91W. VERY LIMITED-ISOLATED WEAK TO 
MODERATE CONVECTION DOTS THE BASIN ON SATELLITE VISIBLE. NO 
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE 
TO AFFECT THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN INCLUDING 
HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...AND CUBA N OF 17N BETWEEN 71W-83W. THIS 
CONVECTION IS FOCUSED ON THE ELONGATED 1008 MB LOW NEAR 19N82W 
...NO LONGER A SPECIAL FEATURE...AND A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS 
EXTENDING ACROSS EASTERN CUBA FROM 22N74W TO THE LOW CENTER. A 
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES SW FROM THE LOW CENTER ACROSS 
CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH EASTERN HONDURAS AND INTO THE PACIFIC 
OCEAN. BROAD SURFACE CYCLONIC FLOW SURROUNDS THIS SYSTEM. HEAVY 
RAINS STILL MAY CAUSE FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN SECTIONS OF 
HAITI...HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...AND CUBA AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS 
GENERALLY NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A BROAD/DEEP 
LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC EXTENDS ITS AXIS SW INTO THE 
NORTH CENTRAL AND FAR NE CARIBBEAN. THIS FEATURE IS GENERATING 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS N OF 16N E 
OF 66W. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NE 
WATERS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AS IT SLOWLY MOVES NE OUT OF THE 
AREA.
 
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD/DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE NW ATLC EXTENDING ITS 
AXIS SW ACROSS THE N CENTRAL AND SW ATLC SUPPORTING A SERIES OF 
SURFACE TROUGHS ACROSS THE AREA. THE FIRST ONE EXTENDING FROM 
30N53W TO 26N56W...THE SECOND ONE FROM 25N60W TO HISPANIOLA NEAR 
20N71W...AND A THIRD ONE EXTENDING FROM 20N57W TO THE LESSER 
ANTILLES NEAR 15N61W. THE COMBINATION OF THESE LOW AND UPPER 
LEVEL FEATURES ARE GENERATING A BROAD/ELONGATED AREA OF 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 200 
NM ON EITHER SIDE OF A LINE EXTENDING ALONG 32N48W 25N55W 21N66W 
21N73W. THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF THIS AREA OF CONVECTION COVERS 
THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS ANTHE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS OF HISPANIOLA 
...EASTERN CUBA...AND PUERTO RICO S OF 23N E OF 57W. ACCORDING 
TO MODEL GUIDANCE...THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN COULD INDUCE 
CYCLOGENESIS IN THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS. TO THE WEST OF THIS BROAD 
AREA OF WEATHER...SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE FAR W ATLC 
AROUND A 1020 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 32N75W. OTHERWISE...SURFACE 
RIDGING DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC E ANCHORED BY A 
1027 MB HIGH S OF THE AZORES NEAR 33N27. THIS FEATURE IS 
PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA E OF 45W.

F0R ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA