000 AXNT20 KNHC 080520 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT WED JUN 08 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0445 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 18N82W...ABOUT 190 NM TO THE WEST OF JAMAICA...AND 130 NM TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HEAVY RAINS STILL MAY CAUSE FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN SECTIONS OF HAITI...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...JAMAICA...AND CUBA AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS GENERALLY NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 17N75W 21N70W 24N64W...FROM JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF HAITI TO THE NORTHWESTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 19N79W 18N74W 18N70W 19N67W 21N64W. THE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE AREA FROM JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF JAMAICA INTO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ACROSS HISPANIOLA TO PUERTO RICO AND INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT 160 NM TO THE NORTH OF ANEGADA PASSAGE. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 15N58W INTO NORTHERN GUYANA. RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GUYANA...POSSIBLY RELATED TO THE WAVE. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE PRIME MERIDIAN ALONG 13N TO 15N13W TO 7N18W 6N27W. THE ITCZ IS ALONG 6N27W TO 5N53W IN NORTHERN FRENCH GUIANA. NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF AFRICA...WITHIN 150 NM OF THE AFRICA COAST BETWEEN 3W AND 7W...AND FROM 4N TO 7N BETWEEN 12W AND 16W. DISORGANIZED ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N BETWEEN 18W AND 50W...AND FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 31W AND 34W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO...THANKS TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 26N89W IN THE CENTER OF THE AREA. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA TO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND COASTAL WATERS. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS COMPARATIVELY A BIT FLAT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 89W/90W FROM 22N TO 25N. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE 1007 MB WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA LOW PRESSURE THAT IS NEAR 18N82W IS GRABBING ALL THE ATTENTION AT THE MOMENT. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ENVELOPES THE AREA. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE BASIN...FROM JAMAICA TO HISPANIOLA TO PUERTO RICO AND TO THE NORTH OF THE ANEGADA PASSAGE. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO ARE IN SOUTHERN HONDURAS AND NORTHERN NICARAGUA. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM LAKE MARACAIBO IN NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA TO THE GULF OF URABA AND NORTHERN COASTAL COLOMBIA. IT HAS BEEN RAINING NEARLY EVERYWHERE AROUND THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA BASIN DURING THE LAST 48 TO 72 HOURS...IN THE WATERS AND LAND AREAS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 34N60W 29N62W 25N68W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 50W AND 80W. ONE SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 34N50W TO 31N53W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 34N60W TO 32N63W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE WITHIN 360 NM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N43W 25N52W 21N62W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 28N35W 20N41W. A 1018 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER REMAINS NEAR 29N41W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES AROUND A RIDGE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N29W 22N46W TO 26N62W. F0R ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT