000 AXNT20 KNHC 072352 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT TUE JUN 07 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A BROAD AREA OF MONSOONAL TROUGH FLOW COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN CENTERED AROUND A 1007 MB LOW NEAR 18N81W...ABOUT 180 NM W OF JAMAICA. SIGNIFICANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO COVER THE WRN CARIBBEAN. DESPITE UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP FURTHER...THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND MUDSLIDES ACROSS JAMAICA...ERN CUBA...HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS REMAINS. THESE AREAS HAVE BEEN SATURATED BY RAINFALL OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS AND THERE HAVE ALREADY BEEN REPORTS OF FLOODS...MUDSLIDES...AND FATALITIES. CURRENTLY NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS MOVING ACROSS HAITI FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 72W-75W...AND E OF THE LOW CENTER ACROSS JAMAICA FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 76W-79W. NUMEROUS MODERATE/SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 16N-21N BETWEEN 69W-85W. HEAVY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS N. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N54W TO 6N57W MOVING WNW AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS LOW AMPLITUDE WITH NO DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED BESIDES A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE NRN EXTENT OF THE WAVE. THE WAVE DOES CORRESPOND WITH A WEAK MOISTURE MAXIMUM EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE PRIME MERIDIAN NEAR 14N ALONG 16N10W ACROSS GUINEA TO NEAR 9N18W 6N28W. ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 6N28W TO 7N47W. A BURST OF STRONG CONVECTION IS MOVING OFF THE W AFRICAN COAST FROM 3N-9N BETWEEN 9W-13W. ISOLATED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN 14W-17W...FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 17W-19W...AND FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 21W-27W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AREAS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FLARED UP ACROSS THE NRN GULF COAST N OF 29N BETWEEN 83W-91W...AS WELL AS A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER SE TEXAS. ACCORDING TO RADAR DATA THE MOST CONCENTRATED AREA OF STORMS IS OVER SRN MISSISSIPPI AND SW ALABAMA. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS N OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 89W FROM 22N-25N SUPPORTING A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM W OF THE AXIS. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES INFLUENCED BY WEAK SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A 1015 MB HIGH NEAR 28N90W...AND DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF NEAR 27N89W. EXTENDING FROM LOUISIANA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CENTRAL AND WRN CARIBBEAN DUE TO FLOW AROUND THE MONSOONAL TROUGH AND A 1007 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 18N81W. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. WIDESPREAD AND SOMETIMES STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS MUCH OF THE NRN CARIBBEAN INCLUDING JAMAICA...CENTRAL AND ERN CUBA...HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. THESE AREAS HAVE SEEN CONTINUED HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO RECEIVE MORE OVER THE UPCOMING DAYS WHICH WILL INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD OF LOCALIZED FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES. SOME OF THE ACTIVITY OVER HISPANIOLA IS ENHANCED FURTHER BY A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE ATLC ACROSS CENTRAL HISPANIOLA TO NEAR 16N73W. THE SW CARIBBEAN IS THE ONLY PORTION OF THE BASIN WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. ALOFT...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN DRAWING MOISTURE FROM THE SW ACROSS THE WRN CARIBBEAN. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SAN JUAN RADAR IMAGERY FROM EARLIER TODAY INDICATE MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW OVER PUERTO RICO WHICH MAY PRODUCE A SURFACE REFLECTION LOW N OF THE ISLAND OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HEAVY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NW AND N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS THE SURFACE LOW W OF JAMAICA DRIFTS N. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A WEAK RIDGE AROUND A PAIR OF 1019 MB HIGHS IS OVER THE WRN ATLC. HOWEVER...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE RIDGE ALONG 29N65W TO 30N81W ALONG A LINE OF WEAK SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. TO THE IMMEDIATE E...A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS IMPACTING THE W/CENTRAL ATLC DRAWING MOISTURE FROM THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR 24N62W TO CENTRAL HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA S OF 25N BETWEEN 59W-75W...AND FROM 19N-25N BETWEEN 49W-59W. A 1017 MB LOW IS FARTHER E NEAR 29N42W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING TO THE E ALONG 31N40W 28N40W 25N42W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NEAR THE LOW CENTER AND WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS. SURFACE RIDGING COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ERN ATLC EXTENDING FROM A 1028 MB HIGH JUST S OF THE AZORES ISLANDS PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 37W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON