000 AXNT20 KNHC 071155 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT TUE JUN 07 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 18N82W...ABOUT 190 NM TO THE WEST OF JAMAICA...AND 100 NM TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF GRAND CAYMAN. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE BECOMING LESS FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM......AND THE AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE MISSION SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN CANCELED. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HOWEVER...HEAVY RAINS MAY CAUSE FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN SECTIONS OF HAITI...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... JAMAICA...AND CUBA AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS LOW CENTER IS CAUGHT UP IN THE BROAD MONSOONAL TROUGH THAT EVENTUALLY EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS HONDURAS INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FROM JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE WATERS THAT ARE TO THE SOUTH OF CUBA AND TO THE EAST OF LA ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD OF CUBA. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 11N51W TO NORTHEASTERN FRENCH GUIANA NEAR 5N53W...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. ANY NEARBY PRECIPITATION IS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ FROM LAND TO 13N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N55W 15N58W 12N60W MOVING NORTHWESTWARD 10-15 KT. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 360 NM TO THE NORTHEAST OF 24N50W 13N61W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE PRIME MERIDIAN ALONG 19N TO 15N13W TO 7N24W. THE ITCZ IS ALONG 7N24W 6N40W TO 7N52W. NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF AFRICA...BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 7W...AND FROM 5N10W TO 10N15W. DISORGANIZED ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N BETWEEN 18W AND 50W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS PRACTICALLY THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO...THANKS TO A TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF MEXICO TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO BEYOND SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COASTAL WATERS OF WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA...TO A FLORIDA PANHANDLE 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER...ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA INTO NORTHEASTERN TEXAS. EARLIER PRECIPITATION ALONG THIS BOUNDARY HAS DISSIPATED. A 1013 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 27N88W. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS COMPARATIVELY A BIT FLAT. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE 1007 MB WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA LOW PRESSURE THAT IS NEAR 18N82W IS GRABBING ALL THE ATTENTION AT THE MOMENT. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ENVELOPES THE AREA. NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE BASIN... MOSTLY IN THE WATERS BUT POSSIBLY REACHING THE ISLANDS ALSO... FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 67W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE WEST OF 74W. IT HAS BEEN RAINING NEARLY EVERYWHERE AROUND THE CARIBBEAN SEA BASIN DURING THE LAST 24 TO 48 HOURS...MOSTLY IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 41N60W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 27N80W 27N63W BEYOND 33N50W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 31N49W TO 27N56W 25N64W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT IS DISCERNIBLE ONLY BY SATELLITE IMAGERY IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT. A 1015 MB LOW CENTER IS NEAR 29N45W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 32N40W 23N46W 18N61W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 31N40W 26N41W 24N44W 24N50W 21N58W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE EAST OF 20W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES AROUND A RIDGE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N30W TO 26N34W TO 19N44W TO 21N53W. F0R ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT