000 AXNT20 KNHC 061153 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT MON JUN 06 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 17N81W...ABOUT 130 NM SOUTH OF GRAND CAYMAN. THIS LOW CENTER IS CAUGHT UP IN THE BROAD MONSOONAL TROUGH THAT EVENTUALLY EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS NICARAGUA INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. SCATTERED STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE WATERS THAT SURROUND JAMAICA WITHIN 180 NM FROM EAST TO SOUTHWEST. NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN 83W AND 86W. BROAD SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE WEST OF 75W. THE EARLIER NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS COVER NICARAGUA FROM SIX HOURS AGO HAVE WEAKENED/DISSIPATED. OTHER RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IN THE WATERS THAT ARE TO THE WEST OF 70W. SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME UNFAVORABLE. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM LATER TODAY...IF NECESSARY. HEAVY RAINS MAY CAUSE FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN SECTIONS OF HAITI AND JAMAICA AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 11N46W 7N44W 3N43W MOVING WESTWARD 10-15 KT. ANY NEARBY PRECIPITATION IS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 16N53W 12N56W 9N57W MOVING NORTHWESTWARD 10-15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 7N TO 12N BETWEEN 53W AND 58W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE PRIME MERIDIAN ALONG 15N TO 18N12W TO 6N20W. THE ITCZ IS ALONG 6N20W 6N40W 6N50W INTO FRENCH GUIANA NEAR 5N53W. NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS OF 9N17W...AND FROM 4N TO 7N BETWEEN 32W AND 38W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 5N TO 7N BETWEEN 20W AND 30W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 2N TO 8N BETWEEN 40W AND NORTHEASTERN SOUTH AMERICA. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE WEST OF THE LINE THAT GOES FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TO THE EASTERN ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF MEXICO. THIS FLOW IS MOVING AROUND A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 23N92W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1016 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N76W TO A 1017 MB HIGH CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N88W...TO A 1019 MB HIGH CENTER THAT IS NEAR 21N97W ALONG THE MEXICO COAST IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE 1007 MB WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA LOW PRESSURE IS GRABBING ALL THE ATTENTION AT THE MOMENT. RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO ARE FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 66W AND 68W...AND ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND ISLANDS TO THE NORTH OF 14N BETWEEN 58W AND 65W. THE 1007 MB LOW CENTER IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 38N59W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N44W 25N50W 20N67W TOWARD THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N53W TO 26N60W TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N76W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT IS DISCERNIBLE ONLY BY SATELLITE IMAGERY IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 30 TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT...AND WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF A SURFACE TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N58W 28N64W 28N73W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N50W TO 22N53W 21N66W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 24N TO 27N BETWEEN 41W AND 44W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE EAST OF 30W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES AROUND A RIDGE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N31W TO 25N37W TO 18N44W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT