000 AXNT20 KNHC 052344 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SUN JUN 05 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SW OF JAMAICA NEAR 17N80W. THIS BROAD LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS LARGELY EMBEDDED WITHIN BROAD MONSOONAL FLOW WHICH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW ACROSS NICARAGUA AND INTO THE EAST PACIFIC REGION. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW LOCATED WELL SW OF PANAMA IS ADVECTING MOISTURE ACROSS THE SW AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS STRETCHING AS FAR EAST AS THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. MOST OF THIS PRECIPITATION FALLS BETWEEN 60W-80W AND CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF VERY MARGINAL ORGANIZATION THIS EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS LOCATED ALOFT OVER THIS SYSTEM EXTENDING FROM NE VENEZUELA TO THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 18N83W AND THIS IS LIKELY AIDING IN ENHANCEMENT OF A FEW OF THOSE ISOLATED TSTMS. AS THE LOW PRESSURE AREA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY IN THE VICINITY OF 80W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...HEAVY RAINFALL RESULTING IN FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES WILL CONTINUE TO BE OF CONCERN FOR EASTERN CUBA...HISPANIOLA...AND PUERTO RICO. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 02N38W TO 10N40W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AXIS THIS EVENING WITH TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATING A POLEWARD EXTENSION OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS BETWEEN 37W-43W. THE WAVE ALSO REMAINS SOUTH OF AN EASTERN ATLC SURFACE RIDGE AS WELL AS UPPER LEVEL DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WHICH IS CONFINING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION TO THE ITCZ AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE S OF 08N. TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 15N52W TO 09N58W MOVING NW AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE CONTINUES TO PROGRESS AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN EASTERN ATLC RIDGE WITH TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE STRETCHING POLEWARD BY A BROAD WESTERN ATLC UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 23N. MODERATELY DRY NW FLOW IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS LIMITING ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION...HOWEVER ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 52W-55W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO 07N20W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N20W TO 06N39W TO 05N52W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-14N BETWEEN 08W-15W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-09N BETWEEN 25W-31W...AND FROM 01N-08N BETWEEN 35W-53W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE WESTERN GULF CENTERED NEAR 26N92W THAT SUPPORTS A WEAK 1016 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA AND A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 30N89W TO 28N94W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING OVER INLAND PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND EASTERN LOUISIANA. FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... THIS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LIFT IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 18N-22N BETWEEN 86W-90W. ELSEWHERE...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG 79W IS PROVIDING THE EASTERN GULF WITH SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW. WHILE MOISTURE ALOFT CONTINUES TO ADVECT N-NE IN THE WAY OF HIGH CLOUDINESS...AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE SW NORTH ATLC ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO A 1018 MB HIGH CENTERED OFF THE SE TEXAS COAST NEAR 28N96W. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS PROVIDING OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AND IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ALONG 28N THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK AHEAD. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM EASTERN VENEZUELA NEAR 09N61W W-NW TO THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 18N83W. THE MAIN SURFACE FEATURE BENEATH THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS THE SPECIAL FEATURES 1007 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 17N80W WHICH IS LOCATED ON THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS. THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE E PACIFIC REGION ACROSS CENTRAL NICARAGUA ALONG 13N TO THE LOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HAS SHOWN A MOISTENING OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING FROM 13N-19N BETWEEN 83W-88W...INCLUDING A LARGE PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. EAST OF THE LOW AND SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED BETWEEN 60W-80W AND ALONG WITH THE AID OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS GENERATING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS. THE SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLC ALONG 79W AND CONTINUES TO PROVIDE DRY AND SUBSIDENT NW FLOW ALOFT W OF 70W. THIS IS SUPPORTIVE OF A 1018 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 29N79W. FARTHER EAST...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLC AND SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N56W. THE FRONT EXTENDS SW ALONG 27N60W TO 26N70W. THE FRONT CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE...HOWEVER ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. FARTHER TO THE SE...W-SW UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW ALONG WITH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE FOCUSED ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM A 1012 MB NEAR 26N52W TO 20N57W TO 19N64W ARE GENERATING A BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 18N-23N BETWEEN 57W-78W. THE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS MAXIMIZED EAST OF THIS AREA WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OCCURRING FROM 18N-32N BETWEEN 36W-57W. THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM THE AZORES ALONG 30W TO 15N. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN