000 AXNT20 KNHC 051207 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SUN JUN 05 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 8N33W TO 3N32W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ WITH NO CLEAR INDICATION ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS SHOW A SLIGHT INDICATION BUT THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD BAND OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE ALONG THE ITCZ. ANY CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATE WITH THE ITCZ. TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 13N51W TO 7N55W MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE SURGE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS INDICATING SOME MID LEVEL TURNING. ANY CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATE WITH THE ITCZ. TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED ALONG 62W/63W S OF 14N TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA MOVING W 5-10 KT. WAVE HAS PASSED ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND CONTINUES TO PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 13N BETWEEN 60W-65W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS OFF SW AFRICA NEAR 13N16W TO 7N23W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 5N38W 6N53W TO 10N61W. SCATTERED/ NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF SW AFRICA WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 5N13W 9N14W WITH CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 40W-44W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 8N15W TO 6N20W...WITHIN 90/120 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 24W-28W AND WITHIN 120 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 30W-40W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-9N BETWEEN 46W-53W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER LOW COVERS THE W GULF W OF 87W. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE SE CONUS AND THE NE GULF N OF 26N WITH AXIS OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA. A SECOND UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE SE GULF ANCHORED IN THE CARIBBEAN WITH DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT COVERING MUCH OF THE GULF. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE N GULF WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE VICINITY OF A WEAK 1015 MB LOW THAT AT 05/0900 UTC IS CENTERED JUST OFF THE COAST OF BILOXI MISSISSIPPI. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 29N91W TO THE TEXAS COAST NEAR HOUSTON GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 28N84W TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND OVER APALACHEE BAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING JUST N OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA S OF 23N BETWEEN 87W-90W WHERE MOIST TROPICAL AIR IS BEGINNING TO STREAM N COMPLIMENTS OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH TUE THEN REFORM JUST N ON WED AND THU. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED ALONG THE COAST OF N VENEZUELA NEAR 11N65W EXTENDING AN AXIS WNW TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND A SECOND AXIS EXTENDING NE ACROSS THE VIRGIN/LEEWARD ISLANDS INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. THE MAIN SURFACE FEATURE IS ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM JAMAICA ALONG 17N78W 13N81W TO CENTRAL NICARAGUA NEAR 12N84W. THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND CONTINUES TO GENERATE SCATTERED/HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 74W-78W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 67-72W...S OF 14N TO INLAND OVER COLOMBIA AND TO THE COAST OF PANAMA BETWEEN 75-79W...FROM 17N TO THE COAST OF HONDURAS BETWEEN 82-85W...AND FROM 20N-22N BETWEEN 81W-87W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN TO INCLUDE FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO HAITI. SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE SE CARIBBEAN. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL LINGER IN THE SAME GENERAL AREA THROUGH AT LEAST TUE. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NE AS A TROUGH TONIGHT THROUGH THU AS ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE PRESENTLY E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE W TROPICAL ATLC THROUGH TONIGHT THEN MOVE ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN MON BEFORE LIFTING N AS A TROUGH TUE AND WED. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC N OF 28N W OF 70W INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 50W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N57W EXTENDING ALONG 28N65W TO 27N72W WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO 28N76W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 45 NM SE OF THE COLD FRONT. TO THE SE IS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 25N52W THROUGH A WEAK 1013 MB LOW NEAR 24N56W TO NEAR 22N65W. THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS AN AXIS ACROSS THE VIRGIN/LEEWARD ISLANDS THEN ENE ALONG 21N50W TO 30N40W PROVIDING DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT TO GENERATE AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 250/275 NM OF LINE FROM 21N54W TO 27N42W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE E ATLC N OF 20N BETWEEN 20W-45W ANCHORED WELL N OF THE AZORES LEAVING THE AREA E OF 40W UNDER FAIR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN TO A FRONTAL TROUGH AS IT MOVES OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN FURTHER E THIS EVENING. THE W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD TO ALONG 29N TONIGHT THEN DISSIPATE MON AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NW ATLC MON THROUGH TUE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW