000 AXNT20 KNHC 042343 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SAT JUN 04 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 11N32W TO 06N29W MOVING W-NW AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AXIS THIS EVENING WITH TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATING A POLEWARD EXTENSION OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS BETWEEN 25W-30W. THE WAVE ALSO REMAINS EAST OF THE BASE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 16N48W TO 08N53W MOVING W-NW AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE CONTINUES TO PROGRESS AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN EASTERN ATLC RIDGE WITH TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE STRETCHING POLEWARD BY A BROAD WESTERN ATLC UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 24N. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION REMAINS CONFINED S OF 10N BETWEEN 50W-60W... INCLUDING PORTIONS OF INTERIOR FRENCH GUIANA...SURINAME...AND GUYANA. TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 17N58W TO 10N62W MOVING W-NW AT 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE IS ALSO PROGRESSING AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN EASTERN ATLC RIDGE AND ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IS BECOMING EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 24N. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 12N BETWEEN 56W-66W... INCLUDING PORTIONS OF INTERIOR VENEZUELA. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 14N17W TO 09N22W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N22W TO 06N29W TO 04N40W TO 07N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N-10N BETWEEN 12W-17W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-06N BETWEEN 28W-40W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE WESTERN GULF CENTERED NEAR 24N92W THAT SUPPORTS A WEAKENING 1016 MB SURFACE LOW THAT HAS RECENTLY MOVED INLAND ACROSS NE MEXICO THAT IS CENTERED NEAR 24N98W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S-SE FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 21N96W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM 21N-24N W OF 95W. ELSEWHERE...AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE SE CONUS WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING RELATIVELY DRY AIR AND OVERALL SUBSIDENCE COVERING MUCH OF THE GULF N OF 25N. AT THE SURFACE... A RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO A 1020 MB HIGH CENTERED SOUTH OF LOUISIANA NEAR 29N92W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG THE GULF COAST BETWEEN 84W-91W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING N OF 30N BETWEEN 83W-86W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF REMAINS UNDER FAIR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM NE VENEZUELA NEAR 10N63W W-NW TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 19N87W. THE MAIN SURFACE FEATURE BENEATH THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS A BROAD 1007 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 16N78W WHICH IS LOCATED ON THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS. THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE E PACIFIC REGION ACROSS CENTRAL NICARAGUA ALONG 13N TO THE LOW. MODERATELY DRY AIR IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR CONDITIONS AND A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING N OF 20N...INCLUDING INTERIOR PORTIONS OF CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THIS EVENING. EAST OF THE LOW AND SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED BETWEEN 70W-80W AND ALONG WITH THE AID OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 10N-20N BETWEEN 70W-80W AND S OF 12N W OF 80W. THE SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY AND VERY BROAD ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS MUCH OF THE WESTERN ATLC W OF 50W THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N61W. THE FRONT EXTENDS W-SW ALONG 29N70W TO 30N76W THEN BECOMES A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT TO THE NORTHERN GEORGIA COAST NEAR 32N81W. THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE...HOWEVER ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. FARTHER SOUTH...SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW ALONG WITH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE FOCUSED ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED ALONG 24N53W 22N58W TO 20N64W ARE GENERATING A BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 18N-25N BETWEEN 55W-72W. THE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS MAXIMIZED EAST OF THIS AREA WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS OCCURRING FROM 17N-28N BETWEEN 40W-55W. THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 29N33W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN