000 AXNT20 KNHC 032350 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT FRI JUN 03 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 18N41W TO 10N42W MOVING W 15-20 KT. THE WAVE ALIGNS WITH A BROAD MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 56W S OF 17N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS ILL-DEFINED...BUT COINCIDES WITH A MOISTURE MAXIMUM IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. A WEAK INVERTED V-PATTERN IS NOTED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SAT. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA FROM THE PRIME MERIDIAN AT 18N ALONG 15N10W ACROSS SENEGAL TO 6N21W. THE ITCZ AXIS PICKS UP FROM 6N21W ALONG 4N35W 3N45W INTO FRENCH GUIANA. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NEAR 6N26W. SCATTERED MODERATE IS WITHIN 140 NM EITHER SIDE OF ITCZ AXIS W OF 40W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 1800 UTC...A 1012 MB SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE SW GULF NEAR 24N99W. THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING LIMITED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY W-SW AT ABOUT 10 TO 15 MPH REACHING THE COAST OF MEXICO JUST N OF TAMPICO SAT. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE. PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A DEVELOPING LOW PRES OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA IS RESULTING IN MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS OVER THE SE GULF WATERS AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WHERE THE MOST RECENT ASCAT PASS ALONG WITH SURFACE DATA SHOWED NE WINDS OF 20 KT. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. ELY WINDS ALOFT...AROUND AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE SE CONUS DOMINATE MUCH OF THE GULF REGION WITH MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...CENTERED ROUGHLY A HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF JAMAICA. SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATE THAT THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH EVIDENCE OF INCREASING CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE SYSTEM HAS RECENTLY BECOME MORE ANTI-CYCLONIC OVER THE LOW...GENERALLY PROVIDING A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...A LARGE AREA OF DRY AIR IS BEING DRAWN INTO THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. HEAVY RAINS ARE THE MAIN CONCERN AND COULD STILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF HAITI...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...JAMAICA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN CUBA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE LOW REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. IF THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHOWS SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...A SPECIAL FEATURE WILL BE INTRODUCED ON THE NEXT ISSUANCE OF THE TWD. SHALLOW MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN A MODERATE TO FRESH NE WIND FLOW...BETWEEN THE DEVELOPING LOW PRES OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND HIGH PRES TO THE N...WILL MOVE MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA PRODUCING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS. THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS ALSO NOTED ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN WHERE A NLY FLOW PREVAILS. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THIS SAT. SEE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION. MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE AFFECTING THE NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO AND THE SURROUNDING WATERS... INCLUDING THE MONA PASSAGE. THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN ENHANCED BY A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A RIDGE DOMINATES THE W ATLC W OF 65W. NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT ARE NOTED S OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA DUE TO THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND BROAD LOW PRES OVER THE CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 30N65W THE CONTINUES SW TO SOUTH FLORIDA. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS EVIDENT ALONG AND BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SPINNING NEAR 24N49W SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 30N40W 24N48W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. FARTHER E...SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES EXTENDING S FROM THE ERN AZORES ISLANDS TO NEAR 18N30W PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE E ATLC. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 15W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GR