000
AXNT20 KNHC 031825
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
205 PM EDT FRI JUN 03 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1745 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N40W 10N42W.
NO READILY DISCERNIBLE DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS DIRECTLY RELATED TO THIS WAVE.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N51W 13N56W 7N58W.
ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM LAND TO 9N BETWEEN 53W
AND 60W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN GUYANA
TO THE NORTH OF 3N.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE PRIME MERIDIAN ALONG 18N 
TO 13N2W TO 16N15W TO 5N21W. THE ITCZ IS ALONG 5N21W 6N36W 
3N42W...INTO EASTERN FRENCH GUIANA NEAR 4N53W. STRONG 
RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN 24W
AND 26W. MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 6N TO 10N 
BETWEEN 28W AND 35W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE 
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 1S BETWEEN 40W AND 42W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 7N BETWEEN 45W AND 53W IN FRENCH GUIANA.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 23N93W...MOVING 
NORTHWESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. THE LOW CENTER IS FORECAST TO
DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS
AND ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS COVER THE AREA FROM 22N TO 27N
BETWEEN 89W AND 96W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE 
FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS NOT MUCH CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM 
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  AS IT 
MOVES GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 TO 15 MPH.BROAD UPPER 
LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST OF 26N82W 
23N90W TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A 
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER NEAR 
24N83W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 15N80W...ABOUT 230 NM 
TO THE SOUTHWEST OF JAMAICA. THE ENTIRE CYCLONIC SYSTEM HAS
BECOME COMPARATIVELY A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED TODAY.  UPPER-LEVEL 
WINDS APPEAR TO BE DIMINISHING OVER THE SYSTEM.  A LARGE AREA
OF DRY AIR IS BEING DRAWN INTO THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE  
CIRCULATION. THE CHANCE FOR THIS FEATURE TO BECOME A TROPICAL 
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS IS NOT HIGH AT THE MOMENT.
HEAVY RAINS STILL MAY CAUSE FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES IN
SECTIONS OF HAITI...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...JAMAICA...AND 
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN CUBA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE
LOW CENTER REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY IN THE WEST-CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA. 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THE PERIOD ENDING
AT 03/1200 UTC ARE NEARLY ONE INCH FOR SAN JUAN...AND
1.48 INCHES FOR TRINIDAD. IT HAS BEEN RAINING NEARLY ONE INCH
PER DAY FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS AROUND PUERTO RICO...RAIN FELL
FOR MUCH OF IF NOT THE WHOLE DAY YESTERDAY ACROSS HISPANIOLA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 33N69W TO 29N74W. THIS 
TROUGH IS STEERING A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES JUST TO THE WEST OF 
BERMUDA AND CONTINUES TO 31N68W. NO READILY DISCERNIBLE DEEP 
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS DIRECTLY RELATED TO THIS TROUGH AND 
FRONT IN THE AREA THAT IS COVERED BY THIS BULLETIN.
AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 25N48W.
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CYCLONIC 
CENTER COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 14N BETWEEN
40W AND 52W. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR
32N20W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE 32N20W CENTER TO 26N33W. MORE
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW MERGES WITH THE 32N20W 26N33W TROUGH
FROM THE NORTH. THE SOUTHERNMOST END OF A COLD FRONT REACHES
31N36W...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION.
A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N27W TO 26N33W TO 15N36W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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MT