000 AXNT20 KNHC 031152 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT FRI JUN 03 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N38W TO 6N36W MOVING W 15-20 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS VERY BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS AROUND THE WAVE AXIS. THIS CYCLONIC FLOW ALSO SHOWS UP IN SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS. THE WAVE ALIGNS WITH A BROAD MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 55W S OF 11N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS ILL-DEFINED...BUT ALIGNS WELL WITH A MOISTURE MAXIMUM IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SOME LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS STARTING TO BECOME EVIDENT. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF THE AXIS FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 56W-59W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA FROM THE PRIME MERIDIAN AT 21N ALONG 16N8W ACROSS GUINEA NEAR 11N15W TO 6N21W. THE ITCZ AXIS PICKS UP FROM 6N21W ALONG 7N36W 6N54W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS JUST OFF THE W AFRICA COAST FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 16W-22W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS ALSO ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 22W-27W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 0900 UTC...A 1012 MB SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN NEAR 23N92W. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIMITED TO WITHIN 45 NM OF THE LOW CENTER. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE...DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AS IT MOVES WESTWARD 10 TO 15 MPH. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW COVERING THE GULF OF MEXICO. MODERATE MOISTURE ALOFT IS NOTED ABOVE THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING OVER THE NE GULF AROUND A 1018 MB HIGH S OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N86W. EXPECT THE LOW TO DRIFT WSW TOWARDS THE MEXICO AND DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... SIGNIFICANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE COVERS THE MAJORITY OF THE CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 70W-84W PRODUCING LARGE AREAS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME AREAS OF STRONG ACTIVITY. THIS IS INFLUENCED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING THE CARIBBEAN CENTERED N OF VENEZUELA. A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW IS E OF NICARAGUA NEAR 14N81W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH IT ALONG 20N80W TO 11N80W. HEAVY SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS ARE E OF THE LOW CENTER AND TROUGH FROM 12N-19N BETWEEN 77W-80W. STRONGER ACTIVITY IS FARTHER E WITH NUMEROUS/STRONG ACTIVITY S OF 20N BETWEEN 73W-79W...AND INLAND OVER THE COLOMBIA/VENEZUELA COAST. ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. HEAVY PRECIPITATION HAS ALREADY OCCURRED OVER PORTIONS OF JAMAICA AND HISPANIOLA... WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE STRONG ACTIVITY DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...CREATING THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW...BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...IS LIKELY TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR. THE FAR NW AND SE CARIBBEAN ARE THE ONLY AREAS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. EXPECT HEAVY PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN AS THE SURFACE LOW SLOWLY DRIFTS NE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OVER THE W ATLC WHERE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE S OF 25N BETWEEN 55W-75W IN AN AREA OF MOISTURE AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE S OF 28N WITH AXIS ALONG 65W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SPINNING NEAR 24N49W SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 23N45W 18N48W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. FARTHER E...SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES EXTENDING FROM THE ERN AZORES ISLANDS TO NEAR 20N38W PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE E ATLC. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 17W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON/MT