000 AXNT20 KNHC 030539 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT FRI JUN 03 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 14N35W TO 2N36W MOVING W 15-20 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS VERY BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS AROUND THE WAVE AXIS. THIS CYCLONIC FLOW ALSO SHOWS UP IN SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS. THE WAVE ALIGNS WITH A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 33W-38W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 53W S OF 9N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS ILL-DEFINED...BUT ALIGNS WELL WITH A MOISTURE MAXIMUM IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM2N-5N BETWEEN 48W-51W. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF THE AXIS FROM 1N-3N BETWEEN 54W-56W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA FROM THE PRIME MERIDIAN AT 18N ALONG 14N9W ACROSS SIERRA LEONE TO 6N16W. THE ITCZ AXIS PICKS UP FROM 6N16W ALONG 6N35W 5N50W 6N60W. A LARGE CLUSTER OF NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS JUST OFF THE W AFRICA COAST FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 14W-19W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 21W-25W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 0300 UTC...A 1012 MB SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN NEAR 23N91W. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOSTLY DIED DOWN BESIDES WITHIN 45 NM OF THE LOW CENTER. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH THE LOW ALONG 27N94W TO 22N912. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW COVERING THE GULF OF MEXICO. MODERATE MOISTURE ALOFT IS NOTED ABOVE THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. EXPECT THE LOW TO DRIFT SW AND DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... SIGNIFICANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE COVERS THE MAJORITY OF THE CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 69W-84W PRODUCING LARGE AREAS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME AREAS OF STRONG ACTIVITY. THIS IS INFLUENCED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING THE CARIBBEAN CENTERED N OF VENEZUELA. A 1007 MB SURFACE LOW IS E OF NICARAGUA NEAR 14N81W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH IT ALONG 19N80W TO 8N81W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE NE OF THE LOW CENTER FROM 12N-19N BETWEEN 77W-80W. STRONGER ACTIVITY IS FARTHER E WITH NUMEROUS/STRONG ACTIVITY FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 69W-72W...AND INLAND OVER NRN COLOMBIA. MORE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. HEAVY PRECIPITATION HAS ALREADY OCCURRED OVER PORTIONS OF JAMAICA AND HISPANIOLA WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE STRONG ACTIVITY CREATING THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES. THE FAR NW AND SE CARIBBEAN ARE THE ONLY AREAS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. EXPECT HEAVY PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN AS THE SURFACE LOW REMAINS STATIONARY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OVER THE W ATLC WHERE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE S OF 25N BETWEEN 55W-75W IN AN AREA OF MOISTURE AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE S OF 28N WITH AXIS ALONG 65W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SPINNING NEAR 24N49W SUPPORTING AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FROM 17N-25N BETWEEN 42W-49W. A SECOND UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 40N38W IS SUPPORTING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THAT CONTINUES AS A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA ALONG 32N38W 27N45W. NO SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. FARTHER E...SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES EXTENDING DOWN 25W PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE E ATLC. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 18W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON