000 AXNT20 KNHC 021205 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT THU JUN 02 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 18N27W TO 6N28W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS AROUND THE WAVE AXIS. THIS CYCLONIC FLOW ALSO SHOWS UP IN SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS. THE WAVE ALIGNS WITH A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 48W S OF 9N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS ILL-DEFINED...BUT ALIGNS WELL WITH A MOISTURE MAXIMUM IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 44W-50W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 76W S OF 18N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THE WAVE LIES WITHIN BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW AND A LARGE AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE COVERING THE CARIBBEAN W OF 68W. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN 72W-75W...AND FROM 15N-17N BETWEEN 76W-78W. NUMEROUS MODERATE/SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 13N BETWEEN 70W-74W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA FROM THE PRIME MERIDIAN AT 18N ALONG 15N7W 17N13W. THE ITCZ AXIS PICKS UP FROM SIERRA LEONE NEAR 7N12W ALONG 7N26W 4N40W 7N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 12W-25W...AND S OF THE AXIS TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 40W-44W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 0900 UTC...A SURFACE TROUGH IS MOVING WWD ACROSS THE N CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 30N88W 25N89W. A CLUSTER OF HEAVY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAS FLARED UP W OF THE AXIS FROM 27N-29N BETWEEN 89W-92W...AND E OF THE AXIS FROM 24N-26N BETWEEN 87W-88W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS DO NOT APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM S FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ALOFT IS NOTED ABOVE THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE N CENTRAL GULF. EXPECT THE TROUGH TO CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE N CENTRAL GULF AS IT MOVES WWD. CARIBBEAN SEA... SIGNIFICANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE COVERS THE MAJORITY OF THE CARIBBEAN W OF 68W PRODUCING LARGE AREAS OF SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME AREAS OF STRONG ACTIVITY. THIS IS INFLUENCED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING THE CARIBBEAN CENTERED N OF BRAZIL. A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 76W IS ENHANCING BETWEEN 69W-78W WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY S OF HISPANIOLA. A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW JUST E OF NICARAGUA/HONDURAS NEAR 16N82W...AS OF 0900 UTC...IS ALSO INFLUENCING SOME ACTIVITY NEAR THE LOW CENTER WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH IT ALONG 17N79W TO 11N83W. AN AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS NEAR 16N80W. THE FAR NW AND SE CARIBBEAN ARE THE ONLY AREAS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. EXPECT HEAVY PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN AS THE SURFACE LOW REMAINS STATIONARY AND THE TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES MOVING WWD. STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OVER THE W ATLC WITH A WEAK 1020 MB HIGH NEAR 31N73W WHERE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE S OF 25N BETWEEN 60W-75W IN AN AREA OF DIFFLUENCE ALOFT BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER S FLORIDA...AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE S OF 27N WITH AXIS ALONG 65W. A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 39W EXTENDING SWD TO 24N SUPPORTING A 1013 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 30N44W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CENTER ALONG 27N43W 25N46W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE TO THE S OF THIS FROM 19N-25N BETWEEN 35W-55W DUE TO DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AROUND THE SE EDGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. FARTHER E...SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES EXTENDING FROM A 1035 MB HIGH NW OF SPAIN PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE E ATLC. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 17W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON