000 AXNT20 KNHC 020540 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT THU JUN 02 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 27W S OF 15N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS AROUND THE WAVE AXIS. THIS CYCLONIC FLOW ALSO SHOWS UP IN SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS. THE WAVE ALIGNS WITH A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 46W S OF 10N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS ILL-DEFINED...BUT ALIGNS WELL WITH A MOISTURE MAXIMUM IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO THE ITCZ. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 73W/74W S OF 14N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THE WAVE LIES WITHIN BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW AND A LARGE AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE COVERING THE CARIBBEAN W OF 67W. AREAS OF NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN 71W-74W...FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 75-78W...AND S OF 14N BETWEEN 70W-75W ACROSS INLAND VENEZUELA/COLOMBIA. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA FROM THE PRIME MERIDIAN AT 18N TO 15N10W. THE ITCZ AXIS PICKS UP FROM SIERRA LEONE NEAR NEAR 7N ALONG 8N24W 4N35W 5N45W 4N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG IS PUSHING OFF THE W AFRICA COAST FROM 9N-16N BETWEEN 13W-18W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS WITHIN 110 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 37W-44W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 0300 UTC...A 1016 MB LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE SW ACROSS THE NE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 28N86W. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN IN INTENSITY AND CURRENTLY REMAINS FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN 86W-90W. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM S FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ALOFT IS NOTED ABOVE THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE NE GULF. EXPECT THE LOW TO CONTINUE TO LOOSE ITS PUNCH AS IT MOVES SW OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. CARIBBEAN SEA... SIGNIFICANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE COVERS THE MAJORITY OF THE CARIBBEAN W OF 67W PRODUCING LARGE AREAS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME AREAS OF STRONG ACTIVITY. THIS IS INFLUENCED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING THE CARIBBEAN CENTERED N OF BRAZIL. A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 74W IS ENHANCING SOME OF THE STRONGER PRECIPITATION ESPECIALLY NEAR THE VENEZUELA/COLOMBIA BORDER...S AND E OF JAMAICA...AND S OF HISPANIOLA. A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW JUST E OF NICARAGUA NEAR 12N83W IS ALSO INFLUENCING SOME ACTIVITY NEAR THE COAST AND ACROSS PANAMA/COSTA RICA WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH IT ALONG 19N80W TO 8N83W. THE FAR NW AND SE CARIBBEAN ARE THE ONLY AREAS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. EXPECT HEAVY PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN AS THE SURFACE LOW REMAINS STATIONARY AND THE TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES MOVING WWD. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OVER THE W ATLC WHERE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE S OF 25N BETWEEN 62W-77W IN AN AREA OF DIFFLUENCE ALOFT BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER S FLORIDA...AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE S OF 27N WITH AXIS ALONG 65W. SOME STRONGER PRECIPITATION IS EMERGING JUST N OF HISPANIOLA AND WRN CUBA FROM THE CARIBBEAN. A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 42W EXTENDING SWD TO 25N SUPPORTING A 1013 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 30N45W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CENTER TO NEAR 25N47W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE TO THE S OF THIS FROM 19N-25N BETWEEN 38W-55W NEAR THE EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL WLY JET. FARTHER E...SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES EXTENDING FROM A 1036 MB HIGH N OF SPAIN PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE E ATLC. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 17W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON