000 AXNT20 KNHC 011123 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT WED JUN 01 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES OF THE DAY SHOW CYCLONIC FLOW IS AROUND THE WAVE AXIS. THE WAVE ALSO ALIGNS WITH A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W S OF 10N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THE WAVE IS ILL-DEFINED AND HAS BEEN JUMPED FARTHER W TO ALIGN BETTER WITH A MOISTURE MAXIMUM IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 68W S OF 17N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. THE WAVE LIES WITHIN BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE ERN CARIBBEAN. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES A SURGE OF MOISTURE IS NEAR THE WAVE AXIS COVERING MUCH OF THE ERN CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 64W-71W. ISOLATED SHOWERS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE E CARIBBEAN. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 76W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. THE WAVE LOCATION IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT DUE TO THE LARGE AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE SW CARIBBEAN. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW ENHANCED MOISTURE ACROSS THE ENTIRE WRN CARIBBEAN. A CLUSTER OF STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 75W-78W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS ACROSS COLOMBIA NEAR THE WAVE AXIS. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM SRN GUINEA NEAR 10N13W ALONG 9N22W 5N32W 5N46W 6N55W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 12W-17W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 23W-38W...AND WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 42W-56W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... MAINLY NLY-NELY FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS S FLORIDA TO THE TIP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A VERY DRY AIR MASS SITS ACROSS THE BASIN WHICH IS MAINTAINING MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS. SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS FROM A 1023 MB HIGH OVER SE LOUISIANA. A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS NEAR 24N85W WHERE A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 26N86W TO 24N85W...AS OF 0900 UTC. 15-20 KT E-SE SURFACE FLOW IS AROUND THE RIDGE WITH STRONG WINDS AROUND THE WRN SIDE OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM E OF GEORGIA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SW TOWARDS NRN FLORIDA AND WILL LIKELY BRING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE FAR SW ATLC ACROSS S FLORIDA AND THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN. WHILE DRY AIR ALOFT IS KEEPING THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE BASIN UNDER FAIR CONDITIONS...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AROUND THE E SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS SUPPORTING STRONG CONVECTION IN THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 14N-16N BETWEEN 78W-81W NEAR A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 91W...AND A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 13N81W. A CLUSTER OF STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO TO THE E NEAR A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 76W. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES ENHANCED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN. TO THE E...A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 68W S OF 17N PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 64W-71W. ISOLATED SHOWERS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC. EXPECT STRONG SHOWER ACTIVITY TO REMAIN OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AS THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 76W MOVES W TO MERGE WITH THE STATIONARY SURFACE LOW. SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE ACROSS THE ERN CARIBBEAN AS THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 68W PROGRESSES WWD. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A FAST MOVING 1018 MB SURFACE LOW IS CURRENTLY NEAR 31N77W MOVING SW TOWARDS FLORIDA. STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY WITHIN 180 NM SW OF THE LOW CENTER. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE S OF 25N BETWEEN 50W-74W IN AN AREA OF DIFFLUENCE ALOFT BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NEAR 29N63W TO S FLORIDA...AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE S OF 27N WITH AXIS ALONG 55W. A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE MAY BE ENHANCING SOME OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SE BAHAMAS...WRN CUBA...AND HAITI. A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH NE OF THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A WEAK 1014 MB LOW NEAR 32N55W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS E OF THE LOW CENTER ALONG 31N46W 27N44W 24N47W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS. FARTHER E...SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES EXTENDING FROM A 1034 MB HIGH N OF SPAIN PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE E ATLC. ALOFT...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR THE AZORES ISLANDS DOWN 31W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON