000 AXNT20 KNHC 010004 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18W S OF 13N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION...AS OF 21 UTC A LEADING BAND OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM 8N-14N NEAR 150 NM AHEAD OF THE WAVE. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED ALONG 34W S OF 10N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. AS OF 21 UTC...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 30W-38W. A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE THAT HAS BEEN FORMERLY ANALYZED IN THE NORTHERN COAST OF S AMERICA IS NOW POSITIONED NEAR 63W S OF 14N AND ENTERING INLAND VENEZUELA. AS OF 21 UTC...NUMEROUS CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION LIES S OF 11N AFFECTING INLAND VENEZUELA BETWEEN 61W-69W. A FOURTH TROPICAL WAVE IS POSITIONED ALONG 72W S OF 16N ENTERING N OF COLOMBIA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 140 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS S OF 12N. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N20W 4N33W 4N36W 4N51W. IN THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC CONVECTION AND SHOWERS IS MAINLY ASSOCIATED TO THE TROPICAL WAVES AS DESCRIBED IN THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE. BESIDES THAT CONVECTION AND AS OF 21 UTC...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM THE EQ-6N BETWEEN 46W-51W NEAR THE NW BRAZILIAN COAST. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1026 MB HIGH REMAINS OVER E OF TENNESSEE NEAR 35N85W. THE GULF OF MEXICO IS BEING INFLUENCED BY RIDGING WITH 10-15 KT E WINDS AND MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE RADAR IN FLORIDA SHOWS AN AREA OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SE OF THE GULF FROM 25N-26N ALONG 82W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH WITH AXIS CENTERED 25N83W IS PRODUCING CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO E OF 90W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE REMAINS OVER THE ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN THERE ARE TWO TROPICAL WAVES. SEE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION FOR CONVECTION AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED TO THESE WAVES. A SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED ACROSS HAITI ALONG 21N71W 19N72W 17N74W. AS OF 21 UTC...SHOWERS ARE LOCATED W OF THE TROUGH WITHIN 110 NM. THE RADAR IN PUERTO RICO INDICATES AN AREA OF STRONG PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE ISLAND W OF 66W. THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF 78W HAS FAIR WEATHER MOSTLY ASSOCIATED TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM THE UPPER LEVELS. TRADE WINDS OF 10-15 KT ARE OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED IN THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 11N81W. NUMEROUS CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 7N-15N BETWEEN 75W-84W...WITH THE STRONGEST CONVECTION LYING 53 NM FROM THE COAST OF NICARAGUA AND INLAND IN COSTA RICA AND PORTIONS OF PANAMA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AS DESCRIBED PREVIOUSLY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN E OF 80W CARRYING CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE. EXPECT...THE TROPICAL WAVES TO CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD AND FOR THE LOW PRESSURE IN THE SW CARIBBEAN TO STAY STATIONARY BRINGING CONSIDERABLE SHOWERS TO THIS AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC A 1016 MB DISSIPATING LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 29N65W. FURTHER E IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC THERE IS ANOTHER DISSIPATING LOW OF 1014 MB CENTERED NEAR 29N58W. NO PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED TO THESE LOWS AS OF 21 UTC. A SURFACE TROUGH LIES IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 29N47W 27N46W 23N45W. SHOWERS ARE E TO THE TROUGH WITHIN 150 NM. IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC THERE ARE TWO TROPICAL WAVES. SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION. AT THE UPPER LEVEL...A RIDGE IS W OF 40W AND A TROUGH E OF 40W. IN 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THESE WAVES TO CONTINUE THEIR WESTWARD TRACK AT A PACE OF 10-15 KT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ RAMOS