000 AXNT20 KNHC 311134 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT TUE MAY 31 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 61W S OF 14N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES A SURGE OF MOISTURE IS NEAR THE WAVE AXIS WHERE SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 55W-61W...AND FROM 13N-15N BETWEEN 59W-66W. THE WAVE IS JUST E OF THE SRN WINDWARD ISLANDS AND WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THE ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 71W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS ILL-DEFINED WITH ONLY A SMALL AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR THE NRN EXTENT OF THE AXIS MOVING OVER WRN CUBA. HOWEVER...TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW ENHANCED MOISTURE NEAR THE WAVE AXIS WHICH IS BEGINNING TO MERGE WITH THE DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE ALREADY PRESENT IN THE SW CARIBBEAN. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM GUINEA NEAR 10N14W CONTINUING ALONG 5N25W 5N40W 7N58W. A CLUSTER OF NUMEROUS MODERATE/SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOW OFF THE GUINEA COAST FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 17W-20W. THIS BURST OF CONVECTION IS MOST LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE STILL OVER WRN AFRICA. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 20W-37W...AND WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE THE AXIS W OF 37W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... MAINLY NWLY-NLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE W ATLC AND FLORIDA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A VERY DRY AIR MASS SITS ACROSS THE BASIN WHICH IS MAINTAINING MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS. SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS FROM A 1024 MB HIGH OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA. A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS IS OFF THE SW COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR 25N85W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. 15-20 KT E-SE SURFACE FLOW IS AROUND THE RIDGE. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 92W S OF 22N CAUSING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE FAR SW ATLC INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. WHILE DRY AIR ALOFT IS KEEPING THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE BASIN UNDER FAIR CONDITIONS...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AROUND THE E SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING STRONG CONVECTION IN THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 78W-81W...AND S OF 11N BETWEEN 74W-84W. A HORIZONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA TO THE COSTA RICA/NICARAGUA BORDER NEAR THIS AREA OF HEAVY STORMS. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES ENHANCED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE BASIN. TO THE E...A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 71W S OF 16N PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 17N-19N BETWEEN 67W-71W. B H01 0.+++0 THE SW CARIBBEAN. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA N OF 17N. A TROPICAL WAVE E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS STARTING TO BRING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE ISLANDS. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE BASIN E OF 75W CENTERED N OF BRAZIL NEAR 8N53W. EXPECT STRONG SHOWER ACTIVITY TO REMAIN OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WITH A POSSIBLE LOW FORMING. SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AS THE TROPICAL WAVE TO THE E PROGRESSES WESTWARD. ATLANTIC OCEAN... SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A 1024 MB HIGH OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR 33N74W IS PROVIDING FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FAR SW ATLC INCLUDING THE MAJORITY OF THE BAHAMAS. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N63W TO S FLORIDA NEAR 25N83W WHICH IS PROVIDING AN AREA OF DIFFLUENCE ACROSS THE SE BAHAMAS...AND THE N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING SEVERAL SURFACE TROUGHS. THE FIRST IS ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ALONG 23N72W 18N74W. THE SECOND IS ALONG 21N62W 17N64W. THE SURFACE FEATURES COMBINED THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS CAUSING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 24N BETWEEN 56W-76W. ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM N OF BRAZIL NEAR 8N53W WITH AXIS EXTENDING ALONG 55W TO 28N. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SPINNING NEAR 30N49W WHICH IS SUPPORTING A COUPLE WEAK LOWS. A 1016 MB SURFACE LOW IS NEAR 30N64W...AND A 1015 MB LOW IS NEAR 28N59W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS E OF THE LOW CENTERS ALONG 31N56W 26N51W 22N55W. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS E OF THE TROUGH AXIS NEAR THE AREA OF DIFFLUENCE ALOFT N OF 22N BETWEEN 42W-48W. FARTHER E...SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES EXTENDING FROM A 1030 MB HIGH NEAR THE AZORES ISLANDS PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE E ATLC. ALOFT...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL 0120.TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR 35N36W TO 9N36*-**-+--+.+*-+ W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON