000 AXNT20 KNHC 310555 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 60W/61W S OF 13N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES A SURGE OF MOISTURE IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS WHERE SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 57W-60W...FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 53W-58W...AND FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 52W-55W. A RECENT ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATES 20 KT WINDS E OF THE WAVE AXIS. THE WAVE IS JUST E OF THE SRN WINDWARD ISLANDS AND WILL LIKELY BRING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THE ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 70W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS ILL-DEFINED WITH ONLY A SMALL AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR THE NRN EXTENT OF THE AXIS. HOWEVER...TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW ENHANCED MOISTURE NEAR THE WAVE AXIS WHICH IS BEGINNING TO MERGE WITH THE DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE ALREADY PRESENT IN THE SW CARIBBEAN. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM GUINEA NEAR 10N14W CONTINUING ALONG 5N25W 3N37W 3N51W. A LARGE CLUSTER OF NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS MOVING OFF THE GUINEA COAST FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 14W-17W. THIS BURST OF CONVECTION IS MOST LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 17W-21W...AND WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 21N-35W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... MAINLY NWLY-NLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE W ATLC AND FLORIDA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A VERY DRY AIR MASS SITS ACROSS THE BASIN WHICH IS MAINTAINING MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS. SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS FROM A 1023 MB HIGH OVER THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA. A LINE OF SHOWERS IS OFF THE SW COAST OF FLORIDA ALONG A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH FROM 27N84W TO 25N83W...AS OF 0300 UTC. 15-20 KT E-SE SURFACE FLOW IS AROUND THE RIDGE. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE FAR SW ATLC INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. WHILE DRY AIR ALOFT IS KEEPING THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE BASIN UNDER FAIR CONDITIONS...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AROUND THE E SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING STRONG CONVECTION IN THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 78W-84W. STRONG ACTIVITY IS ALSO INLAND ACROSS PANAMA. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES ENHANCED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE BASIN. TO THE E...A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 70W S OF 16N PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 16N-17N BETWEEN 67W-72W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. A TROPICAL WAVE E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS STARTING TO BRING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE ISLANDS. THE REMAINDER OF THE E CARIBBEAN IS UNDER FAIR CONDITIONS. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE BASIN E OF 75W CENTERED N OF BRAZIL NEAR 9N54W. EXPECT STRONG SHOWER ACTIVITY TO REMAIN OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WITH A POSSIBLE LOW FORMING. SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD ALSO INCREASE ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AS THE TROPICAL WAVE TO THE E PROGRESSES WESTWARD. ATLANTIC OCEAN... SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A 1023 MB HIGH OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR 33N76W IS PROVIDING FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FAR SW ATLC INCLUDING THE MAJORITY OF THE BAHAMAS. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N64W TO S FLORIDA NEAR 25N81W WHICH IS PROVIDING AN AREA OF DIFFLUENCE ACROSS THE SE BAHAMAS...AND THE N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 24N68W 20N72...AND ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF 24N BETWEEN 60W-75W. ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM N OF BRAZIL NEAR 9N54W WITH AXIS EXTENDING ALONG 55W TO 28N. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SPINNING NEAR 29N50W WHICH IS SUPPORTING A SERIES OF WEAK 1016 MB SURFACE LOWS NEAR 30N64W...28N60W...AND 31N57W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE THIRD LOW CENTER ALONG 30N52W 27N51W 24N53W 23N56W. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS E OF THE TROUGH AXIS NEAR THE AREA OF DIFFLUENCE ALOFT N OF 23N BETWEEN 42W-48W. FARTHER E...SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES EXTENDING FROM A 1031 MB HIGH NEAR THE AZORES ISLANDS PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE E ATLC. ALOFT...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR 35N36W TO 9N45W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON