000 AXNT20 KNHC 301037 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1030 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE SE CARIBBEAN ANALYZED FROM 13N63W TO INLAND OVER VENEZUELA NEAR 7N64NW MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE IS MOVING UNDERNEATH STRONG WESTERLY SHEARING FLOW ALOFT WHICH IS LIMITING CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS. WHILE A CLASSIC SIGNATURE IS HARD TO DETECT USING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES MODERATE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE VALUES IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 80 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS N OF 11N. TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE BORDER BETWEEN VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA...ANALYZED FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 14N72W TO 7N73W MOVING W AT 5-10 KT. THE WAVE AND ITS ENERGY ARE QUICKLY BECOMING ABSORBED INTO THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA. THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED TO THIS WAVE REMAINS INLAND OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA AND NORTHERN COLOMBIA. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE COAST OF GUINEA NEAR 10N14W SW ALONG 6N20W 4N30W 2N40W 2N50W 3N54W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 26W-38W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ON THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE AXIS FROM 10N51W TO 2N56W...GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OF GUYANA...SURINAME...AND FRENCH GUIANA S OF 10N BETWEEN 50W AND 59W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A SHARP UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE GULF THIS MORNING. CONSEQUENTLY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A VERY DRY SUBSIDENT AIRMASS ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA. AT SURFACE...RIDGING REFLECTS OVER THE BASIN PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE ENTIRE GULF. MARINE OBS AND LATEST ASCAT PASS REVEALED ESE WINDS UP TO 25 KT GUSTING TO 30 KT ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. HAZY SKIES CONTINUE OVER THE NW BASIN N OF 25N W OF 93W. MARINE OBSERVATIONS IN THIS REGION INDICATED VISIBILITIES BELOW 10 SM WITH A FEW STATIONS DOWN TO 5 SM. OTHERWISE...THE SURFACE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN AND LIFT N OF THE BASIN THROUGH TUE MORNING. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL ANTI-CYCLONIC CIRCULATION SITS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA THIS MORNING. HOWEVER AT SURFACE ...A BROAD AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE AND CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. TPW PRODUCT CONTINUES TO SHOW HIGH VALUES OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THIS REGION...EXPANDING INTO THE CENTRAL BASIN. THE CONVERGENT TRADEWIND FLOW IN THIS REGION FOCUSES ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM NEAR 15N80W TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA NEAR 10N76W. THIS SURFACE FEATURE COMBINED WITH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK NE OF THE GREATER ANTILLES...IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER A BROAD AREA THAT COVERS THE CENTRAL AND SW BASIN N OF 12N BETWEEN 68W-83W...ALSO INCLUDING INLAND PORTIONS OF WESTERN PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA ...AND EASTERN CUBA. WITHIN THIS REGION OF CONVECTION...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ACROSS HISPANIOLA FROM 22N68W TO 17N72W. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE CONSISTENT SUGGESTING THE ACTIVITY IN THE SW BASIN WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AS CYCLOGENESIS IN THE FORM OF A WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER DEVELOPS IN THE 36 TO 72 HOUR WINDOW ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS THE FAR WEST ATLC FROM A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 37N70W...KEEPING CONDITIONS MOSTLY FAIR THIS MORNING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES ABUNDANT MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING E-NE FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES INTO THE ATLC...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS S OF 22N BETWEEN 64W-77W INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. WITHIN THIS REGION OF CONVECTION...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ACROSS HISPANIOLA FROM 22N68W TO 17N72W. FARTHER EAST...A BROAD ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO ROTATE AROUND 32N57W. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS SUPPORTING A SERIES OF SURFACE LOWS MOVING ACROSS THE S CENTRAL ATLC...ANALYZED AS A 1015 MB LOW NEAR 28N60W AND A 1016 MB LOW NEAR 27N50W. A SURFACE TROUGH ENTERS THE AREA ALONG 60W TO THE 1015 MB LOW. NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE TROUGH NOR THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM THE EASTERNMOST LOW ALONG 23N50W TO 20N50W. SCATTERED WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 40W-50W...ENHANCED BY STRONG DIFFLUENCE FLOW ALOFT...COINCIDING WITH A LEFT-FRONT QUADRANT OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK NE OF THE GREATER ANTILLES. THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA AND KEEPING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS E OF 40W. THE RIDGE IS ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH CENTERED W-NW OF THE AZORES NEAR 39N37W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA